Immigration Spike Eases Labor Shortage
For accurate predictions, models depend on accurate input data. For this reason, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) routinely updates demographic information about the United States. Recently, errors on the orders of millions of people have come to light. Why are the estimates of the number of immigrants off base, and what are the effects on economic planning? “The CBO now projects that 3.3 million people on net immigrated to the United States in both 2023 and 2024,” according to an economic letter released by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) on July 15, 2024. “These estimates are […]
The Future of Work
Now that the Covid-19 pandemic fears are receding, what is happening to the average workplace—will it become more or less virtual? Will some workers prefer to continue working from home and refuse to commute? As for generative AI—how will that change the future of work? “There will always be work to do, but it will be different from the work we know now,” said Mary C. Daly, President and CEO of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), known informally as “the Fed.” She was the introductory speaker on September 8, 2023, at a presentation outlining the Fed’s […]
Disruptions, Costs & Markets
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused supply chain disruptions. How much have the costs of international trade increased? What impact has this had on the U.S. economy? What is the effect on labor force participation? Can existing models properly quantify these effects? Recent research by three leading economists tried to model the real-life situation of U.S. dependence on a global supply chain and what happened when parts of that chain were broken. (“Broken” encompasses several scenarios: “ports being closed or operating at partial capacity, fewer workers being available for health reasons, and a shortage of shipping containers, among other challenges.”) On […]
Inflation & Wage Growth
As the U.S. economy emerges from the pandemic, inflation has been climbing. What effect has this had on average wages? Will it be a long-lasting effect? Recent research by leading economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) dives into these questions. “Our findings show that, since the pandemic, inflation expectations have been playing a more prominent role in wage-setting dynamics than in the past,” say the four authors of a paper released on September 6, 2022. Òscar Jordà is a senior policy advisor, Fernanda Nechio is a vice president, and Celeste Liu and Fabián Rivera-Reyes are both […]
Update on the Jab
It’s a truism: bad health of the population, bad economy. What then is happening globally in the Covid-19 pandemic? When will things return to normal? The pandemic continues to rage in various parts of the world, affecting both developed and emerging markets. On July 7, 2021, The Economist, a magazine that has been running stories on vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic each week, sponsored a webinar featuring an editor and correspondent on the pandemic beat. Natasha Lode, health policy editor at the Economist, highlighted some recent issues. She is also host of the Economist’s podcast The Jab, whose tagline reads, […]
WTO: The Jabs and the Jab-Nots
As the covid-19 vaccines continue to be rolled out across the world, and as trade disputes continue to fester, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has her work cut out for her as the new director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). With many years’ experience in politics, economics, and vaccine production, she already has a deep understanding of the issues. On June 29, 2021, she spoke with Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of the magazine the Economist, about ending the covid-19 pandemic and the future of globalization. Ngozi described herself as a “trade outsider” when she first began at the World Bank, “which has […]
Future trends in science
After the pandemic, then what? What are the next breakthroughs in science and technology? “Science can save the world. As proof, look what is happening with the pandemic,” said Tom Standage, deputy editor and head of digital strategy at The Economist. “However, scientific breakthroughs can’t save us all on their own.” He was welcoming the audience and panellists to a webinar co-sponsored by The Economist and CIFAR (Canadian Institute for Advanced Research) held on May 18, 2021. Standage began by surveying the four panellists on what new scientific breakthroughs are on the horizon. There will be great strides forward in […]
Taking Stock
As the covid-19 vaccines continue to be rolled out across the world, how can central banks best counteract the impact of the pandemic? Now might be a good time to pause and reflect on the economic response in Europe. Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of the magazine the Economist, sat down for an interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on February 10, 2021, to reflect on the challenges Europe faces as it tries to restart its economy while protecting the health of citizens. Lagarde noted the ECB was praised for its quick response in the early […]
Covid Vaccines
“Be careful what you wish for,” the adage goes, “it might come true.” After a year of an ever-broadening pandemic, vaccines have arrived, and thus begins a new round of planning and negotiating. As the first covid-19 vaccines are rolled out across the world, the magazine the Economist assembled a panel on January 14, 2021, to reflect on the challenges. An audience of thousands tuned in as three seasoned journalists discussed global issues related to vaccine development, the risks of misinformation, and the expected impact of an uneven distribution process of vaccines. The panel moderator was Helen Joyce, executive editor for […]
The Achilles Heel of Banking
After last decade’s financial crisis, regulators introduced several new measures to reduce systemic risk in the financial system. How are the new safeguards working? What are the implications for future balance sheet structure? The CFA Society Toronto convened a panel of three experts on November 25, 2020, to discuss the new regulatory capital and liquidity frameworks and how they are reshaping the way Canadian banks approach the market. The webinar, including a Q&A session, was moderated by Nigel D’Souza, Investment Analyst, Veritas Investment Research. “There’s no doubt the financial crisis changed balance sheets,” said Bruce Choy, Managing Director (Former Risk […]