Stress Testing, Part 1: The Data Mountain
Demands by regulators for increased frequency of reporting and more granularity of data in financial stress testing “are creating a data mountain,” said Jon Asprey, VP Strategic Consulting, Trillium Software. He was the first of two speakers to address the issue of data in stress testing in a webinar organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on January 28, 2014. He contrasted the new demands with early (pre-financial crisis) days of Basel reporting, when the summary level was sufficient. The data mountain has a significant impact on financial institutions, creating “the month-end panic,” Asprey said, since reporting at most […]
Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia: Part 2
After giving an overview (see Part 1), Paul Whelan, of the Imperial College London and formerly the European Central Bank, walked the audience through the mechanics of an award-winning paper on monetary policy at a webinar on January 16, 2014 sponsored by GARP. A shock, by its very nature, is non-routine. Therefore, “a good measure of monetary policy shocks should exclude systematic components,” Whelan said. Another challenge was to “distinguish between quantity of risk versus price of risk channels.” Use of the Taylor rule allowed the researchers to isolate the exogenous dynamics of monetary policy. The trio was able to […]
Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia: Part 1
“Monetary policy makers want to control the long end of the yield curve,” said Paul Whelan at a webinar on January 16, 2014 sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. Whelan co-authored an article that won the 2013 GARP Award for best paper in financial risk management. “Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia”, by Andrea Buraschi, Andrea Carnelli, and Paul Whelan, provides a quantitative analysis of the effect of monetary policy shocks on future bond returns. Buraschi is at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Imperial College London; Carnelli is at Imperial College London; and Paul […]
Basel, the Big Picture: Tackling Risk Aggregation & Reporting. Part 2
“What [should we] look for in a risk aggregation solution?” asked Renzo Traversini, Director of Europe, the Middle East and Africa & Asia-Pacific, Risk Management Center of Excellence at SAS. He was the second of two speakers at a GARP-sponsored webinar to discuss the recently released Basel paper, Principles for Effective Aggregation and Reporting of Risk Data. Traversini focussed on the “nuts and bolts” of how to aggregate and report risk data. SAS is one of the major suppliers of information technology (IT) solutions in financial risk management. Timeliness is crucial to a good reporting system. Traversini began by showing […]
Basel, the Big Picture: Tackling Risk Aggregation & Reporting. Part 1
“It’s a quality piece of work that lays out the road ahead,” said Donna Howe, professor of finance at Brandeis International Business School. She was the first of two speakers at a webinar to discuss the 2013 Basel paper, Principles for Effective Aggregation and Reporting of Risk Data. The webinar was sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. Besides governance, Howe noted the 14 principles described in the paper expressed four main themes: completeness, accuracy, timeliness, and adaptability. Completeness of risk reporting is necessary, but “it becomes very easy to lose the nuance” when the data are too numerous […]
Eye on Credit Markets. Part 2: Spreads Hit Floor
“The central bank stimulus has been significant—what will happen as it’s withdrawn?” asked Seth Rooder, Global Credit Derivatives Product Manager at Bloomberg. He was the second of two speakers to consider the effects of tapering in a GARP webinar presentation on November 21, 2013. A key question is: “when will the Fed taper?” Rooder said not soon, because with unemployment still above 6.5 percent, Vice-Chair of the Fed Janet Yellen will have unwillingness to taper. Currently, the Fed is pumping money into the system by buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion in Treasury bills per month. He […]
Eye on Credit Markets. Part 1: Little Beta, Lots of Alpha
“How will the credit markets perform if the Federal Reserve Board chooses to taper over the next year or so?” asked Sivan Mahadevan, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy and Global Credit Derivatives Strategy at Morgan Stanley. He posed this question to members of the Global Association of Risk Professionals on November 21, 2013. Here, “tapering” refers to a gradual lessening of asset purchases. As the first of two speakers in a webinar presentation, Mahadevan summarized the credit markets to date: “little beta, lots of alpha.” Investment grade assets have had a good rally this year. “The higher yields go, the […]
China: Global Leader, Threat, or Both? Part 2.
“The likelihood of conflict is low but non-negligible” when it comes to China’s perspective on Japan’s re-militarization, said Daniel Wagner, CEO of Country Risk Solutions, during the second half of his Global Association of Risk Professionals webinar on October 22, 2013. After surveying Sino-American relations in Part 1, Wagner guided the audience through an in-depth look at China’s evolving geopolitical position in Asia and Africa. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has raised military spending, loosened constitutional constraints on military action, and given a high profile to the Senkaku Islands dispute. Sabre-rattling occurs, but Wagner doubts that China and Japan would […]
China: Global Leader, Threat, or Both? Part 1. China and US
“Hide one’s brilliance, bide one’s time” seems the most fitting aphorism for China’s global strategy, said Daniel Wagner, CEO of Country Risk Solutions. During an hour-long webinar on October 22, 2013 organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals, Wagner guided the audience through China’s evolving geopolitical position generally, as well as its relationships with US, Asia, and Africa. China is in the ascendant mode, said Wagner, citing the increasing use of the yuan as a reserve currency, as well as its rising military power. Regaining global dominance would be “like picking up where they left off,” he said, reminding […]
Credit Workflow Optimization: A Practical Approach
“How can an institution practically approach credit workflow when it might not be streamlined? How can we optimize existing processes?” These questions were posed by Justin Huhn, Credit Assessment & Origination Practice Leader at Moody’s Analytics Enterprise during a webinar arranged by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on September 24, 2013. Huhn noted that, as of Q1 2013, there were over seven thousand insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the US excluding foreign branches. These financial institutions tend to develop silos of expertise. Workflow optimization is of pressing concern to many. In 2008 the American Bankers Association estimated […]