Finding a New Balance
How can monetary policy achieve price stability and full employment objectives in the midst of a changing economic environment? Lately, the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) has been thinking hard about new ways to control inflation, given the new economic headwinds. “Persistently low inflation presents a new problem for monetary policymakers,” said Mary C. Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF). On August 29, 2019, she gave a speech to a conference of economists and policymakers in Wellington, NZ. This was a significant venue, because inflation targeting was pioneered in New Zealand in 1990, […]
Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia: Part 2
After giving an overview (see Part 1), Paul Whelan, of the Imperial College London and formerly the European Central Bank, walked the audience through the mechanics of an award-winning paper on monetary policy at a webinar on January 16, 2014 sponsored by GARP. A shock, by its very nature, is non-routine. Therefore, “a good measure of monetary policy shocks should exclude systematic components,” Whelan said. Another challenge was to “distinguish between quantity of risk versus price of risk channels.” Use of the Taylor rule allowed the researchers to isolate the exogenous dynamics of monetary policy. The trio was able to […]
Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia: Part 1
“Monetary policy makers want to control the long end of the yield curve,” said Paul Whelan at a webinar on January 16, 2014 sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. Whelan co-authored an article that won the 2013 GARP Award for best paper in financial risk management. “Monetary Policy and Treasury Risk Premia”, by Andrea Buraschi, Andrea Carnelli, and Paul Whelan, provides a quantitative analysis of the effect of monetary policy shocks on future bond returns. Buraschi is at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Imperial College London; Carnelli is at Imperial College London; and Paul […]
Implications of the Euro Zone Crisis
When it comes to financial debt in the Euro Zone, “deleveraging has barely begun,” said Daniel Wagner, author and risk consultant. “It’s a long and winding road.” On August 7, 2012, Daniel Wagner, CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a US-based cross-border risk management consulting firm, addressed a Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) audience about the Eurozone crisis. Wagner, author of Political Risk Insurance Guide, and Managing Country Risk, published in 2012, spoke on a range of related topics. Wagner’s talk was far-ranging and comprehensive (78 slides in 45 minutes). He spoke about the impact of debt: in particular, the effect […]
US Implementation of Basel III. Part 1: A Long and Winding Journey
The long and winding US route to Basel implementation has been more difficult and circuitous than the route for European banks. Peter Went, VP Banking Risk Management Programs at GARP, delivered a webinar update on the Basel III leg of the journey on July 24, 2012. First, Went summarized the deadlines. Several sequential proposals have been issued by the US prudential agencies: the OCC, FRB, and the FDIC, with an expected implementation date beginning January 1, 2013, and a series of milestones thereafter. [Note: by mid-December 2012, the implementation dates for most of the Basel III proposals have been delayed […]