Performance

Catch a Falling Knife. Part 1

Who is taking advantage of the downturn in crude oil prices? “Most E&P assets are no longer economic to drill at today’s commodity prices,” said Curtis Flood, Vice President at the investment banking firm Evercore. He was the first of two speakers at a webinar “Catch a Falling Knife: Financial Repercussions of Current Crude Oil Prices” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 7, 2016. (E&P refers to exploration & production, also known as the upstream petroleum industry.) The downturn in oil & gas prices is “the result of simple economics” caused by the “shale revolution” leading […]

Conference Call Tones. Part 2

Click here to visit Part 1. Interview with S. McKay Price, continued. Q: In the introduction to your paper on textual analysis of conference call tones, you describe a 2012 conference call in which David Einhorn grilled the management team of Herbalife, thereby causing the shares to fall 20 percent in price. Did you run the transcript of this conference call through your call tone algorithm, and if so, was it the most negative sample in the set? 2012 was not in our sample period so we did not specifically create tone measures for that Herbalife call. Although I suppose […]

Conference Call Tones. Part 1

“Spin,” said Morty. “It’s all about spin.” He pointed to the web interface where he was listening to a certain equipment manufacturing company try to explain anomalies in their reported expenses. Like hyenas, the analysts were picking apart the footnotes. Turning to me, Morty said, “These scoundrels are masters of Orwellian doublespeak,” and then he exited the call. About a year later, I chanced upon research that looks into actual word usage during earnings conference calls. Three authors, Paul Brockman, Xu Li, and S. McKay Price, examined transcripts from nearly three thousand such calls. One of the authors is interviewed […]

Most Valuable Skill for Risk Managers?

In terms of marketable expertise for financial risk managers, what counts more: quantitative skills, or the ability to communicate and interpret the results of calculations? “The biggest surprise of our in-depth study is that communication ranked above quant skills,” said Christopher Donohue, Managing Director of Research and Educational Programs at the Global Association of Risk Professionals. On June 30, 2015, he reported on the results of the 2015 Job Task Analysis of GARP members. Survey Design The goal of the survey and analysis was to identify knowledge and skills necessary to support competent performance of tasks and responsibilities that are […]

Hedge Fund Fallacy

“If all the money that’s ever been invested in hedge funds had been put in treasury bills instead, the results would have been twice as good,” said Simon Lack, founder of SL Advisors, LLC, and author of The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It’s Too Good to Be True. This statement was his opening volley in a webinar titled “The Hedge Fund Fallacy” on May 5, 2014, sponsored by the CFA Institute. Lack began with a “typical portrayal” of hedge fund returns: a 6 percent return over the period 1998 to 2013. Over the same […]

Investing in Emotional Assets

When Morty discovered my vacation plans this year included Cremona, that put a bee in his bonnet. Did I know it was the home of the famous Stradivarius workshop? Was I going there to check out violins? Yes and no, I said. My preference was to cycle along the Po valley and sip espresso near the Zodiac Tower. “Maybe you should think twice about your visit,” Morty said. “I happen to have it on good authority that beautiful collectibles can be a solid component of your portfolio.” “Please Morty, don’t make wild-eyed guesses about other people’s money,” I said. Especially […]

Fama-French 2. Three is Now Five?

Fama and French, originators of the three-factor model for asset pricing, are working to understand the fourth factor –and a fifth factor, too, said Marlena Lee, PhD, VP of Dimensional Fund Advisors. She should know; she has worked closely with Nobel laureate Gene Fama and was his former teaching assistant at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Lee spoke at the CFA Society Toronto on June 19, 2014, about the evolution of asset pricing. Part 1 summarizes her comments on the dimension of profitability. Could there be another component? As early as 1993 Jegadeesh and Titman had proposed […]

Fama-French Model 1. Three is Now Four

Does the Fama-French three-factor model adequately capture all information available in describing stock returns? According to Marlena Lee, PhD, VP of Dimensional Fund Advisors, the three-factor model is lacking one or two important components. Lee visited the Toronto offices of the CFA Society Toronto on the afternoon of June 19, 2014, to speak to over twenty financial experts about the evolution of asset pricing. Lee was a funny and forthcoming lecturer. After her flight from the States up to Toronto, she said the suspicious Canada Border Services officer asked: “This CFA Society… what does ‘CFA’ stand for?” She momentarily blanked: […]

SM 2. Good Insight Into The Social Ecosystem

“Customers, employees, and suppliers are empowered” through social media, said Barbara Gray, CFA, Equity Analyst and Founder of Brady Capital Research, (BCR) and this fosters the growth of firms that behave responsibly to them. Her company actively promotes investment in companies with “positive social capital.” Gray was the second panellist (of four) to address the topic “The Impact of Social Media on the Investment Process” at a CFA Toronto Society gathering held in the gallery of the TMX Broadcast Centre on the evening of May 21, 2014. As an example of negative social capital, she cited a case of Air […]