A Tale of Two Funds
There are helpful and unhelpful models for determining risk-based profit attribution, according to Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk. This is part 2 of his explanation about how to attribute financial performance, given at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. Miller gave an example of two funds. Fund A contains both long and short assets, is market neutral and generates positive alpha. Fund B is a macro fund that is market dependent and whose manager is correct 54 percent of the time. The returns of Funds A and B look very […]
Risk-Based Profit Attribution
“Even the best portfolio managers have bad years due to macroeconomic factors beyond their control,” said Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk, to an audience of financial risk professionals. This is Part 1 of his talk about how to attribute performance for financial management at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. “We tend to view measurement of risk and performance as separate tasks, but performance can only be fully understood by taking risk into account,” Miller said. Performance is always evaluated relative to something else, such as “the market”—which commonly taken […]
Origins of Canadian Banking
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 triggered a worldwide recession. The American and European banking systems experienced massive losses, takeovers, and taxpayer-funded bailouts. Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, European debt crisis, … and the after-effects are still being felt. Canada’s banking system did have some shaky moments, as a recently published analysis of its asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) predicament showed. On the whole, however, Canada’s banks withstood the financial crisis relatively well and the financial system maintained its liquidity, solvency, and profitability. The history of the divergence in the Canadian and American banking systems is recounted in a new book. From […]
Consolidated Audit Trail
The eighth anniversary of the 2010 flash crash on May 6, 2010, is approaching, Beau Alexander reminded the audience at the webinar organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Alexander is a Senior Sales Executive at FIS Global Trading, a publicly traded provider of financial services technology. The 2010 flash crash “was the second-largest intra-day swing in the stock market,” he said. That day the market lost two trillion dollars and then rebounded. “When you see volumes drop by 15 percent, there’s an activity that needs to be flushed out.” “Someone sitting in their parents’ basement had caused […]
Extracting Value from CECL 2
To meet the new for current expected credit losses (CECL) requirements, “you will need a lot of data,” said Thomas Caragher, Senior Product Manager of Financial & Risk Management Solutions at Fiserv, a US provider of financial services technology. Seven to ten years of data is not unreasonable. The payoff to massive data-gathering is that “you will be able to build strategy more effectively if you have information.” But what to do with the reams of data? First, you have to make some sense of it. “Start by correlating the data,” he said. Oil production might be correlated with loan demand […]
Extracting Value from CECL 1
“Turn the pain of compliance into the benefit of strategy,” said Thomas Caragher, Senior Product Manager of Financial & Risk Management Solutions at Fiserv, a US provider of financial services technology. He was speaking about the approaching deadline to implement new guidelines for current expected credit losses (CECL) at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on April 11, 2018. CECL is the new impairment standard for credit impairment under the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Since it affects accounting, the effect of CECL will be felt “in department stores, cell phone companies, municipalities”—throughout the U.S. The purpose of business intelligence is […]
Behavioral Analytics 3
There is a range of future applications of behavioral analysis in banking risk management, said Clifford Rossi, Professor of Finance at University of Maryland. Its true potential has yet to be tapped. As an example, he described how hehavioral analysis can be deployed in credit risk assessment of non-traditional borrowers. The borrower willingness-to-repay preference used to always prioritize the family home. Since the 2007 financial crisis, there’s been a shift in mortgage borrower attitudes. In some areas, borrowers prioritize their car. The change in this sentiment can be detected using behavioral analysis. “It was virtually impossible using the proxy variable […]
Behavioral Analytics 2
Industry leaders in the field of behavioral analysis (Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon – FAMGA, as some call them) are “decision architects,” said Joe Mattey, Vice President of Enterprise Risk Analytics, and Chief Risk Officer at USAA. Typically a FAMGA product designer will put together a solution, such as a screen dialog, and fine-tune it over the course of many randomized, controlled trials, to see if the proposed solution gets the desired result—or whether some components need to be changed. In this way, behavioral analysis is looking not just at a decision outcome, it is looking at how that […]
Behavioral Analytics 1
The application of behavioral analysis to banking will touch nearly every corner of the financial sector. Is the financial institution you work for ready? Are you ready? Traditional economic analysis assumes that individuals and groups rationally maximize their outcomes, and that consumer consumption is defined by utility maximization. In contrast, behavioral analysis does not assume rationality. It seeks to understand individual or group behavior, which is often not rule-based, said Joe Mattey, Vice President of Enterprise Risk Analytics, and Chief Risk Officer at USAA. He was one of two panellists on March 13, 2018, speaking about how banks can leverage […]
As Fast as You Can
The implementation window for the new Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) standard may seem plenty big enough, but there are loads of decisions to be made, such as “how will we calculate this?” “Decide on methodology and start implementing as fast as you can,” advised Masha Muzyka, Senior Director, Regulatory and Accounting Solutions at Moody’s Analytics. She was part of a round-table discussion, held on January 10, 2018, about the transition to CECL. The webcast was organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). The new CECL standard will bring significant changes, such as a spike in earnings volatility. […]