“Lending Will Be Marketing Gimmick”
What will be the effect of Basel III on banks in emerging markets? “Commercial banks will become less interested in providing loans,” said Dr. Michael C. S. Wong, the first panellist in a webinar on Banking in Emerging Markets held November 20, 2014, and sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. He is Associate Professor of Finance at City University of Hong Kong, and Chairman at CTRISKS Rating. Wong summarized the challenges of the new Basel III regulatory regime, with its tougher capitalization and liquidity requirements. A global systemically important bank (G-SIB) will have additional capital and cash-holding requirements, he said, […]
Fama-French Model 1. Three is Now Four
Does the Fama-French three-factor model adequately capture all information available in describing stock returns? According to Marlena Lee, PhD, VP of Dimensional Fund Advisors, the three-factor model is lacking one or two important components. Lee visited the Toronto offices of the CFA Society Toronto on the afternoon of June 19, 2014, to speak to over twenty financial experts about the evolution of asset pricing. Lee was a funny and forthcoming lecturer. After her flight from the States up to Toronto, she said the suspicious Canada Border Services officer asked: “This CFA Society… what does ‘CFA’ stand for?” She momentarily blanked: […]
Modeling Sovereign Risk. Part 2: Quantification
“The Bloomberg sovereign risk model starts by dividing countries into two types,” said Rajan Singenellore, “reserve-currency countries and non-reserve currency countries. Everything else depends on that distinction.” Singenellore is Product Manager, Risk & Valuations at Bloomberg and was the second of two speakers to address a GARP webinar audience on September 12, 2013. A reserve-currency country is one whose currency is held in significant quantities by other governments as part of their foreign exchange reserves, such as the US and the Japan. There is a pressing need for quantification in the area of sovereign credit risk, he said, citing as […]
Modeling Sovereign Risk. Part 1: Emerging Markets
“Country-specific factors such as government debt and the sovereign credit rating change slowly but global aggregates such as the risk appetite change quickly, thus leading to confusion the part of observers,” said Michael Rosenberg, Foreign Exchange Consultant, Bloomberg and author of Currency Forecasting: A Guide to Fundamental and Technical Models of Exchange Rate Determination. He was the first of two speakers to address a GARP webinar audience on September 12, 2013. Much of Rosenberg’s talk focused on the sovereign credit risk of emerging markets (EM), because the accelerating flow of net private capital into EM from 1980-2014 has been unprecedented. […]