Climate change is recognized as having large effects on health and economic well-being. Peer-reviewed scientific studies show the impact of temperature/weather/pollution on mortality, GDP, health, crime, and civil conflict. Yet, according to a recent working paper series by Burke et al., adaptation to counteract the problem has been muted.
“The climate change response has stalled. Are democracies equipped to handle this problem? asked Francesco Trebbi, Professor of Political Economics at the University of California, Berkeley School of Business. “Policies to curb the climate crisis, such as the carbon tax, are often democratically opposed. Are non-democracies like China better able to deal with the crisis?”
He was speaking at the webinar “Climate Politics in the United States” delivered on October 30, 2025, as part of the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics (VSCE) organized by the Europe-based Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He was reporting on research he co-authored with Matilde Bombardini and Frederico Finan, both also at University of California Berkeley; Nicolas Longuet-Marx at Stanford University; and Suresh Naidu at Columbia University.
Trebbi posed the question: “What are the political obstacles to a stronger response to climate change?”
Drawing on the field of political economics, the researchers modeled the politics of climate as a case of demand and supply—not for goods, but for climate policy. “Is the slow progress due to low voter demand for climate policies?” he asked. “Or is it due to a low politician supply with climate policies?”
Modelling Political Economics
Trebbi presented an equilibrium model of the political economy of climate. It depended on four main sources of data: political data (about electoral results, and policy platforms), weather data, and jobs data.
For political data, they turned to the detailed 2024 database of Longuet-Marx, which contains precinct-level U.S. voting data (crucial to identify demand) and also candidate policy positions based on website and survey statements (crucial to identify supply).
They estimated the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on voting patterns and candidate positions. Below is one graph showing the increase, over one decade, of very hot days.
The model used current estimates to create future projections of climate change and energy transitions in order to forecast the effects on the political map and the climate policy. Below is one graph showing projected very hot days in the year 2050.
The study found high temperature shocks and high precipitation shocks increased support for the Democrat party.
Democrats appeared more responsive to voter demand for climate policy. The report found that, “voters are sensitive to the environmental policy choices of Democratic candidates competing in their congressional races, but not of Republicans. Both Democratic and Republican candidates respond to local party effects in their platform decisions, but much less than 100 percent.”
Brown Job, Green Job
The researchers wanted to separate effects due to extreme temperature and precipitation from economic drivers, such as the losses and gains of two broad categories of job in geographic areas throughout the U.S.
The categories are “brown jobs,” defined as roles and activities that cause pollution, damage ecosystems, and exhaust natural resources, such as extracting fossil fuels; and “green jobs,” defined as occupations that help preserve or restore the environment by reducing waste, minimizing pollution, conserving resources, and promoting energy efficiency, such as installing solar panels.
The study found the arrival of green jobs was correlated with greater support for the Democrat party. Brown job gains increased support for the Republican party.
Future Projections
The authors used the parameter estimates from the demand-and-supply model to project the effects of climate and employment trends 25 years into the future. They write, “Under our climate change scenarios, the analysis shows a consistent electoral shift toward more pro-environmental candidates.” ♠️
Graphs and maps are derived from webinar slides. Permission pending.