analysis

Not Just the Modelling

The estimation and reporting of credit impairment at banks has led to a brand-new set of guidelines around the current expected credit loss (CECL). What’s a beleaguered banker to do? “For an effective CECL transition, preparation is key,” said Samrah Kazmi, Advisory Industry Consultant for Risk Solutions at SAS. She was the third and final speaker at a webinar titled “CECL: Managing Through the Implementation Headwinds” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on September 12, 2018. “Most banks think CECL is just about the modelling,” she said, “but it’s also data, systems, and processes.” Begin by identifying the stakeholders, she advised, […]

CECL Headwinds

The time for banks to implement the new guidelines on credit impairment is at hand. How prepared is your team? A summary of issues around the current expected credit loss (CECL) can be found in the webinar titled “CECL: Managing Through the Implementation Headwinds” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on September 12, 2018. “The life of loan loss expectation is a big factor in CECL,” said Michael Gullette, senior vice-president, Tax and Accounting, at the American Bankers Association. He was the first of three speakers at the GARP webinar. Loan loss expectation (LOL) includes loan prepayments and troubled debt restructuring […]

Shifting Energy Markets

How are strategic priorities in energy markets shifting? What are the risk management implications? “Geopolitical risks have worsened and technological innovation is causing more disruption,” said Medy Agami, senior partner and vice-chairman at Ben-Roz and Associates and co-founder of the consulting firm Opimas. He was the sole presenter of the webinar “Energy Market Strategy and Risk Playbook: How to prosper amid a wave of disruptive innovation, geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility & exponentially growing risk landscape in 2018 & beyond” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on August 7, 2018. “There are five main forces acting on fundamentally shifting markets,” […]

Recent SEC Enforcement

Given the trends that are emerging for enforcement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), what’s a risk manager to do? “Risk managers should use data and data analytics to identify patterns,” said Steven Hilfer, Managing Director in the Disputes & Investigations practice, Capital Markets at Navigant. He was the fourth and final speaker in a four-part webinar panel titled “SEC 2018 Enforcement Trends” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on July 25, 2018. He argued that the SEC is plunging ahead in the area of data analytics, and it expects companies “to identify patterns prior to being […]

An Insider’s View

“Quite frankly, I think some have underestimated Clayton,” said Ken Joseph, Managing Director, Disputes and Investigations practice, at Duff & Phelps. “There is a de-emphasis on some areas and re-prioritization of other areas—but he is still focused on wrongdoing.” Joseph was referring to Jay Clayton, the recently appointed chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Ken Joseph was the second speaker in a four-part webinar panel titled “SEC 2018 Enforcement Trends” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on July 25, 2018. He is also former Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s New York Regional Office Investment […]

A Tale of Two Funds

There are helpful and unhelpful models for determining risk-based profit attribution, according to Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk. This is part 2 of his explanation about how to attribute financial performance, given at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. Miller gave an example of two funds. Fund A contains both long and short assets, is market neutral and generates positive alpha. Fund B is a macro fund that is market dependent and whose manager is correct 54 percent of the time. The returns of Funds A and B look very […]

Risk-Based Profit Attribution

“Even the best portfolio managers have bad years due to macroeconomic factors beyond their control,” said Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk, to an audience of financial risk professionals. This is Part 1 of his talk about how to attribute performance for financial management at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. “We tend to view measurement of risk and performance as separate tasks, but performance can only be fully understood by taking risk into account,” Miller said. Performance is always evaluated relative to something else, such as “the market”—which commonly taken […]

As Fast as You Can

The implementation window for the new Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) standard may seem plenty big enough, but there are loads of decisions to be made, such as “how will we calculate this?” “Decide on methodology and start implementing as fast as you can,” advised Masha Muzyka, Senior Director, Regulatory and Accounting Solutions at Moody’s Analytics. She was part of a round-table discussion, held on January 10, 2018, about the transition to CECL. The webcast was organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). The new CECL standard will bring significant changes, such as a spike in earnings volatility. […]

Challenges to modelling

Constructing an accurate financial model for the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) may present problems to some banks. Possibly a bank is collecting data for annualized charge-off rates. However, that would overlook the question: “how would that inform someone as to the loss rate over the lifetime of the portfolio?” asked Michael Gullette, SVP, Tax and Accounting at the American Bankers Association. The question boils down to whether a bank has enough data of the right kind to see trends and relationships. “And if you have the data, what is the quality?” Gullette said. He was part of a round-table discussion […]

Never too early to start

The “reasonable and supportable” clause of the new Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) standard “is the most hotly debated part” of the regulation, according to Cristian deRitis, Senior Director, Consumer Credit Analytics at Moody’s Analytics. He was part of a round-table discussion about the transition to CECL that was webcast by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on January 10, 2018. CECL is the new credit impairment standard under Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). “Auditors are grappling with what ‘reasonable and supportable’ means, too,” he added. For best practice in terms of modelling credit risk, the phrase boils down to whether […]