Ask the Fed
“The Fed is trying to achieve price stability and maximum employment,” said Sylvain Leduc, Executive Vice President and Director of Research of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), known informally as “the Fed.” In terms of employment levels, “we are back to where we were pre-pandemic.” He was speaking on February 7, 2023, at a public briefing in which he outlined the FRBSF’s thinking on economic matters. He showed a graph of unemployment, which reached a peak at the start of the pandemic in early 2020. The monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment had a downward arc. “Job […]
Disruptions, Costs & Markets
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused supply chain disruptions. How much have the costs of international trade increased? What impact has this had on the U.S. economy? What is the effect on labor force participation? Can existing models properly quantify these effects? Recent research by three leading economists tried to model the real-life situation of U.S. dependence on a global supply chain and what happened when parts of that chain were broken. (“Broken” encompasses several scenarios: “ports being closed or operating at partial capacity, fewer workers being available for health reasons, and a shortage of shipping containers, among other challenges.”) On […]
Chemistry and the Economy
Risks are multiplying and becoming more complex. The chemical industry is intrinsically connected to the economy. Can chemistry help solve the biggest crises facing us today? On December 15, 2022, the American Chemical Society hosted a virtual webinar, “Chemistry and the Economy.” The moderator was Bill Carroll, principal of Carroll Applied Science, who spoke to Paul Hodges, chairman of the Swiss-based strategy consulting firm New Normal. In speaking about risks, Hodges does not beat around the bush. He began with what he called “the four horsemen of the apocalypse.” He stated, “First there was the pandemic and associated supply chain […]
Climate Risk in Africa
Are European governments turning to African energy producers? What is the effect of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine on other parts of the world? Will this threaten Africa’s transition to renewable energy? Is there any way to put the brakes on climate risk? On December 12, 2022, the Climate Action Tracker group held a virtual event, where three experts on climate risk discussed how to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and enhance climate action in Africa, with a focus on climate governance. Fossil gas is not the answer To meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, “the global […]
E-Growth in Emerging Markets
What is happening in emerging markets? Are there areas where an informed investor can make a profit? What are the pitfalls to avoid? On November 22, 2022, the CFA Society of Toronto hosted a virtual webinar, “Rethinking Emerging Markets: The Case for Growth & How to Capture It.” The speaker was Kevin T. Carter, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of EMQQ Global. Carter began by providing his background. “I pray toward Omaha,” he quipped, because he considers himself an active “value” investor first and foremost, along the lines of “the oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett. Carter has collaborated with […]
Inflation & Wage Growth
As the U.S. economy emerges from the pandemic, inflation has been climbing. What effect has this had on average wages? Will it be a long-lasting effect? Recent research by leading economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) dives into these questions. “Our findings show that, since the pandemic, inflation expectations have been playing a more prominent role in wage-setting dynamics than in the past,” say the four authors of a paper released on September 6, 2022. Òscar Jordà is a senior policy advisor, Fernanda Nechio is a vice president, and Celeste Liu and Fabián Rivera-Reyes are both […]
The Beveridge Curve
In early 2021, in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. saw many workers leave their jobs and seek other employment—leading to record high job vacancies—a phenomenon observed dubbed “the great resignation.” Lately, inflation is rising, markets are cooling, and the great resignation appears to be slowing. The question becomes: How will unemployment rise as growth slows and job vacancies decline? On August 29, 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) released an Economic Letter titled “Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve” that explores the current relationship between unemployment and economic growth. The paper was […]
Drivers of Inflation
What is causing the current inflationary environment? How are financial risk managers (FRMs) coping with escalating prices and renewed demand? What are the best strategies for addressing unanticipated inflation—what should a risk manager recommend to hedge against inflation? These and related questions led to a recent survey by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). “In June 2022, we surveyed 350 FRMs and found that most respondents expected inflation to remain high over the next year, followed by a significant reduction in the next five years,” said William May, Senior VP, Global Head of Certifications and Educational Programs, GARP. The survey […]
Steering the Ship
“Board involvement is pivotal… It’s so much easier to get climate risk capability embedded,” said Jo Paisley, President of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). “Our survey found the vast majority of boards have oversight of climate-related risks and opportunities.” She was referring to the report titled Third Annual Global Survey of Climate Risk Management at Financial Firms available from the GARP website since September 2021. Paisley and two other panel members were part of the July 12, 2022, webinar to mark the publication of a joint report from GARP and the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI). […]
Towards a Common Standard
Investors around the world are demanding consistent, high-quality reporting of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data. Is there any global governing body for financial reporting that is up to the task? How can an organization ensure that sustainability reporting is comparable, consistent, and comprehensive? Furthermore, is the input from financial professionals welcomed? The answer, apparently, is “yes” on all three counts. On June 21, 2022, Josina Kamerling, member of the Value Reporting Foundation and the CFA Institute, welcomed an audience of hundreds to a webinar titled “Endgame: Will the ISSB become the comprehensive global baseline for sustainability disclosure?” She introduced the representative […]