Inside Story, South America
How are different parts of the world reacting to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and how does that affect those who must analyze and report on global geopolitical risk? The magazine The Economist presented a webinar on May 28, 2020, titled “Inside Story: Reporting on the Covid-19 Pandemic Around the World.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at The Economist, interviewed two outstanding foreign correspondents. This is part two of a two-part summary. The second panellist was Sarah Maslin, foreign correspondent for The Economist, South America. She spoke from her home in São Paulo, which is decorated with scarves from soccer teams […]
Top 5 Trends in Risk Management
The champagne has been drunk, and the New Year has been rung in. What trends are predicted in risk management as we welcome the new decade? “In 2020, we’ll likely see significant changes in risk models, processes and functions,” predicts Brenda Boultwood, Risk Advisory Partner at Deloitte. As a senior expert in risk culture and corporate governance, she published an article online January 10, 2020, for the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). We present the highlights and a link to the full article below. The three lines of defense business model, as we know it, will end This is actually […]
From brown energy to green
How will climate change affect the financial sector and the broader economy? What policy responses will mitigate climate change risks? Recently, the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) sponsored the first conference dedicated to exploring the economic and financial risks associated with climate change. “Climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system,” says the report summarizing the main themes of the conference. The report, released on December 16, 2019, was co-authored by Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch. Hale is a research advisor and Jordà and Rudebusch are both senior policy advisors at the Federal […]
A Good Start…
Financial risks due to climate change are receiving more attention of late, particularly for investors and regulators, but how far along are firms in addressing the issues? A report on climate risk management at financial firms tabled on June 28, 2019, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), answers the question with its subtitle: “A Good Start, But More Work to Do.” The report is co-authored by Jo Paisley, Co-President, and Maxine Nelson, Senior Vice President at GARP. “Our sample covered 20 banks and seven other financial institutions … from across the globe. These firms have a global […]
Winds of Change
“Will the greater intensity of climate change expected in Canada produce a greater impact on Canadian financial institutions, and firms that hold a greater proportion of exposure to Canada in its portfolio?” This was the question posed by Robert Thomas, risk consultant to the non-profit organization Ontario Conservation Now as part of a round table held at the Toronto Public Library on April 18, 2019. A report[1] tabled earlier this month by Environment Canada says that climate change will have a greater effect on Canada than on most countries. The report, Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2019 (CCCR2019), looked at observed […]
8 Ways to Look at Deforestation Risk
“Forests are the lungs of our land, purifying the air,” wrote Franklin D. Roosevelt. Looking at the economic side, what does the loss of forests mean to global markets? “Deforestation is a risk to the supply chain,” said Gabriel Thoumi, Director Capital Markets at Climate Advisers. “It puts billions of dollars at risk.” He was the first of four presenters at the May 4, 2017, webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. He began with a summary of the activities of Chain Reaction Research, a group which has been actively assessing the sustainability of the supply chains of […]
Weatherproofing Bonds
When it comes to managing climate risk, what is the wise investor to do? Low-carbon investing is one possibility. We recently interviewed Marielle de Jong, head of fixed -income quant research at Amundi Asset Management. She said, “The purpose of low-carbon investing is not to penalize companies that produce a lot of CO2. The question is whether the production line is carbon efficient, whether there is no unnecessary spoilage. That is why the selection criterion is the intensity, the tonnage of CO2 per added value, and not the tonnage itself.” She cautioned, “It is a complex task to measure CO2 […]
Weatherproofing Equities
Risks in finance are many and varied. How can a forward-looking researcher choose which areas need the most attention? We recently interviewed Patrick Bolton, professor of business at Columbia University and asked what led to his interest in hedging climate risk. “I am interested in long-term investing, especially how large long-term institutional investors should think about the risk-return trade-offs they face,” he said. “Long-term investors have to think harder about risks that do not yet appear material to short-term investors. One category of such risks is what is now commonly referred to as environmental, social and governance factors, or in […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 2
The team of Scott L. Smith, Jesse Weiher, and Debra Fuller at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) use specialized financial models to estimate potential losses. They carried out empirical tests of countercyclical shocks using four different models of mortgage credit risk. This posting continues a February 4, 2015, presentation by Scott L. Smith to an audience of financial risk managers at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Two models were devised at FHFA, and two are commercially available credit models: one, called Black Knight (formerly LPS-AA), and the other called ADCO Loan Dynamics. The estimated losses were converted to a capital […]
Europe: Is the worst over? Part II.
“Deleveraging takes a long time, and it is painful,” said Philippe Ithurbide, Global Head of Research, Analysis and Strategy at Amundi Asset Management. In the second part of his presentation to the CFA Society Toronto on November 19, 2013, he discussed solutions to European financial difficulties. Deleveraging must be helped along in order to shorten the time and reduce negative socioeconomic impacts. “Never in history have we seen the deleveraging of all the players at the same time.” “Banking credit is faltering everywhere in the euro zone,” said Ithurbide. Euro zone bank credit is still highly fragmented by nation, with […]