“The Death of the Soul”
Do you long for the good old days? What, exactly, were “the good old days”? Depends on your time horizon. Today’s excerpt comes from page 11 of Economic Thought: A Brief History by Heinz D. Kurz, translated by Jeremiah Riemer (Columbia University Press, 2016). “According to Scholastic economic thought, the answer to the material hardship experienced by large segments of the [medieval European] population was not higher production and economic growth but self-restraint and the repression of needs. “The heart of Scholasticism was the doctrine concerning usury. A core argument was that money is sterile—it cannot “breed offspring.” Another argument […]
“Worse Than Silverfish”
Some authors go to great lengths to make their monographs up-to-the-moment. In this excerpt, the authors refer to a popular and critically acclaimed TV series. It’s a calculated risk. They use an obsession of the (fictional) characters—the money they are amassing—to tie into the very real phenomenon of hyperinflation. Today’s excerpt comes from page 103 of the book The Evolution of Money by David Orrell and Roman Chlupaty (Columbia University Press, 2016). “To visualize how hyperinflation can affect one’s personal savings, fans of the TV show Breaking Bad will recall the episode in season 5 in which it is shown […]
War, Kidnapping, Data Theft
War, kidnapping, and data theft: Is it some fiction pot-boiler that’s come over the transom? No, it’s the chapter on how the gross domestic product (GDP) came into being in Germany. Today’s excerpt comes from pages 117-8 of the book The Power of a Single Number: A Political History of GDP by Philipp Lepenies, translated by Jeremy Gaines (Columbia University Press, 2016). “[John Kenneth] Galbraith was surprised by the results of his calculations and surveys because they, for the first time, provided a clear picture of the Nazi economy. Because no set of tools comparable to gross national product calculation existed on […]
Three-Way Damage
Do you remember that cute VW video, “The Force”? The one where the little boy, dressed up as Darth Vader, can’t get a reaction from anyone or anything, even his dog, when he tries his super-powers on them? Then, Dad drives up in his VW Passat and the Vader-wannabe is, magically, able to get the lights to flash. The camera pans to parents looking out the window. Dad gives a conspiratorial grin as he clicks the remote control. On September 18, 2015, world markets were rocked by news that Volkswagen had knowingly falsified its emissions of toxic nitrogen oxides. The […]
Topology Can Streamline Modelling
How can software systematize and optimize the routine tasks in building financial risk models? “We use topology to inform feature selection, and then we examine a range of models,” said Mukund Ramachandran, Data Scientist at Ayasdi. He was the third of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. In the course of evaluating potential models, several statistical tests are applied. “Machine intelligence considers the entire high dimensional space jointly,” he said. Machine learning is capable of applying hundreds of algorithms and different combinations, “but […]
Machine Intelligence + Business Intuition
Given the exponential growth in data complexity, how can you, the risk manager, quickly determine the most salient economic factors to include in calculating a bank’s risk exposure? Nowadays, modelling risk is all about “speed, accuracy, and defensibility,” said Patrick Rogers, Head of Marketing at the software company Ayasdi. Risk models must be developed “in a relatively short time window and must be statistically valid.” Since risk models must be defensible to business owners and industry regulators, and simple to explain, the ordinary “black box” machine learning would fall flat, Rogers said. He was the second of three panellists at […]
“Tons of Models, Tons of Variables”
With so many economic variables, and such a wide choice of parameters, do you feel overwhelmed by the task of producing the best financial model possible? Is there a systematic approach to exploring models? “Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a focus on stress testing,” which requires robust financial models, said Roderick Powell, Director of Market and Treasury Risk at the consulting company KPMG. He was the first of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. “Building those models is a time-consuming, […]
“Not Only The What But The How”
When it comes to financial data for stress testing, there’s a good news-bad news aspect. The good news may be that a bank did not suffer severe financial stress but the bad news is that it will be harder for the bank to model “bad events” if it does not have such data. And banks “will get written up if [the regulators] don’t believe their bad events,” said Tara Heusé Skinner, Manager at SAS Risk Research & Quantitative Solutions, and co-author of The Bank Executive’s Guide to Enterprise Risk Management. She was the first presenter of two at the May […]
Tailoring Risk Model to Investment Strategy
Due to the growing complexity of measuring financial risk, “risk has become a patchwork” of different models, said Phil Jacob, Senior Director at Axioma Risk Research. He was the sole presenter in a webinar about tailoring the right risk model to your investment strategy held on March 4, 2015, and sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Jacob identified four inherent challenges. “There are operational issues stemming from existing rigid approaches,” leading to “difficulty in aggregating risk.” There is a lack of consistency in modeling portfolios, which can run the gamut from very simple proxies all the way […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 2
The team of Scott L. Smith, Jesse Weiher, and Debra Fuller at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) use specialized financial models to estimate potential losses. They carried out empirical tests of countercyclical shocks using four different models of mortgage credit risk. This posting continues a February 4, 2015, presentation by Scott L. Smith to an audience of financial risk managers at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Two models were devised at FHFA, and two are commercially available credit models: one, called Black Knight (formerly LPS-AA), and the other called ADCO Loan Dynamics. The estimated losses were converted to a capital […]