The Fed, Foreign Banks and Basel III: Part 1. A Long Hard Look
Foreign banking operations (FBOs) in the United States are about to face a whole new set of regulations that may dampen their enthusiasm for US-based operations, according to a February 14, 2013 webinar organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). “The Fed observed over time that US branches were increasingly used to fund the home office operations,” said Charles Horn, partner at Morrison Foerster, who was the first speaker at the panel. Other concerns of the Federal Reserve Board are the increased complexity of FBOs, and “the availability of home country financial resources for branch offices.” The goal, […]
Managing Model Risk: Part 3. Collective Hubris
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy. – Wm. Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 1, Scene 5. “We are building the language in which to discuss model risk,” said Boris Deychman, Director of Model, Market and Operational Risk Management at RBS Citizens Financial Group. He drew an analogy with the world of wine experts, who have developed specific vocabulary to talk about aroma and taste. “They don’t say just: this tastes like wine.” Deychman was the third and final speaker of a panel invited by the Global Association of Risk Professionals to discuss […]
Managing Model Risk: Part 2. The Impact of Basel III
“More consideration must be made for regulatory capital changes that focus on small but potentially devastating risks or risk factors,” said Peter Went, VP, Banking Risk Management Programs at GARP. He was speaking about Basel III and its impact on modelling regulatory capital at a webinar on January 29, 2013, organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals to discuss model risk management. Went mentioned three developments in the Basel III that directly impact capital models and model risk in regulatory capital determination. First, Basel III introduces a risk-invariant leverage ratio of 3 percent in recognition that models may be […]
Managing Model Risk: Part 1. “Models are Always Wrong”
“Models are always wrong,” said Joe Pimbley, Principal at Maxwell Consulting, via webinar on January 29, 2013. He was the first of a panel of three speakers invited by the Global Association of Risk Professionals to discuss model risk, what it is, and how to assess and validate it after the financial crisis. Models are always wrong, Pimbley clarified, because they are only simplifications. “Wrongness” he defined as some type of error or omission that materially impacts the results as understood by the user. A model can be wrong because the meaning of the result differs from that understood by […]
Libor Fallout: Part 3. A Muted Valuation Effect
On December 20, 2012, the third presenter at the GARP webinar on the LIBOR scandal was Robert Maxim, director of Complex Asset Solutions at Duff & Phelps. He spoke about the valuation implications of incorrect LIBOR rates. The cash flow of many financial instruments is indexed to LIBOR, he said, for big companies as well as small, and even for individual consumers such as those holding private student loans. Maxim considered an interest rate swap example in which the floating leg is tied to LIBOR. The valuation is always computed on the difference between the fixed and floating leg. “The […]
Libor Fallout: Part 1. The Stomach Ache During the Heart Attack
The emerging scandal around the setting of LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) prompted GARP (the Global Association of Risk Professionals) to convene a panel of three experts to inform its members about the background and implications of the LIBOR fraud. On December 20, 2012, the first presenter at the GARP webinar was Amy Poster, Strategic Adviser at Iron Harbor Capital Management. She described the background and key facts. Calling it the “$800 trillion scandal,” Poster said that these events touched many derivatives markets, various consumer debt instruments such as credit card loans, and 100 percent of the sub-prime market. […]
Contingent Capital: The Case for COERCs. Part 2.
“Many people have misgivings about [contingent convertible bonds] because they just don’t know how to value them,” said George Pennacchi, Professor of Finance at University of Illinois. He was the second speaker at the November 29, 2012 GARP webinar on the subject of Call Option Enhanced Reverse Convertible (COERC) bonds. Click here to go to Part 1. Pennacchi, along with Theo Vermaelen and Christian Wolff, co-authored a recent paper proposing a new type of cocobond. [Contingent convertible bonds, or “cocobonds,” are bonds that convert into equity when the market value of capital falls below a trigger level.] “The paper provides a […]
Contingent Capital: The Case for COERCs. Part 1
Contingent convertible bonds, or “cocobonds,” are bonds that convert into equity when the market value of capital falls below a trigger level. A major problem with cocobonds is that “the conversion trigger is based on the capital ratio, which is known to be a poor indicator of financial distress,” said Theo Vermaelen, Professor of Finance at INSEAD. He was the first speaker at the November 29, 2012 webinar held by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on the subject of Call Option Enhanced Reverse Convertible (COERC) bonds. Vermaelen referred to a case in point: a Credit Suisse cocobond issued […]
The State of the Credit Markets: Part 2. Global Trends
“Political uncertainty creates a bimodal distribution of risk, which is very difficult for the markets to price,” said Seth Rooder, Global Credit Derivatives Product Manager for Bloomberg, and the second of two speakers at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) webinar on November 15, 2012. (Click here to view Part 1.) Rooder was referring to the first of five main themes in global risk trends, as he sees them. They are: (1) Economic and political uncertainty (2) Slowing global growth (3) Central Bank (CB) intervention (4) Continuing low yields (5) Increased regulation Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, […]
The State of the Credit Markets: Part 1. The Curious Case of the Euro Zone
“The euro zone is caught in the middle of two opposing forces,” said Alberto Gallo, head of European Macro Credit Research for Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and a featured speaker at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) webinar “The State of the Credit Markets” on November 15, 2012. He was referring to the forces both “positive” (European Central Bank liquidity and low interest rates) and “negative” (heavy debt and increasing fragmentation) in the euro-zone financial markets. Gallo pointed out that, in the last 20 years, banking in Europe has grown tremendously. At €35 trillion, bank assets are now […]