Conference Call Tones. Part 1
“Spin,” said Morty. “It’s all about spin.” He pointed to the web interface where he was listening to a certain equipment manufacturing company try to explain anomalies in their reported expenses. Like hyenas, the analysts were picking apart the footnotes. Turning to me, Morty said, “These scoundrels are masters of Orwellian doublespeak,” and then he exited the call. About a year later, I chanced upon research that looks into actual word usage during earnings conference calls. Three authors, Paul Brockman, Xu Li, and S. McKay Price, examined transcripts from nearly three thousand such calls. One of the authors is interviewed […]
“Well Worth The Trouble”
How well positioned are you for the job market in a softening economic environment? Possessing the chartered financial analyst designation, known as the CFA charter, sends a strong signal to potential employers, said Chris Polson, President of the CFA Society Toronto, which is part of the global CFA Institute. He was speaking at the webinar “Capital Markets Compensation Trends” on August 11, 2015, sponsored by CFA Society Toronto. The goals of the webinar were twofold: to recap the value underlying the charterholder designation, and whether this was reflected in the remuneration of Canadian charterholders, as shown by the results of […]
Most Valuable Skill for Risk Managers?
In terms of marketable expertise for financial risk managers, what counts more: quantitative skills, or the ability to communicate and interpret the results of calculations? “The biggest surprise of our in-depth study is that communication ranked above quant skills,” said Christopher Donohue, Managing Director of Research and Educational Programs at the Global Association of Risk Professionals. On June 30, 2015, he reported on the results of the 2015 Job Task Analysis of GARP members. Survey Design The goal of the survey and analysis was to identify knowledge and skills necessary to support competent performance of tasks and responsibilities that are […]
Three Takeaways
Does it ever seem awkward to run Visual Basic subroutines within Microsoft Excel? If you have a plain unvarnished subroutine, you must click through to the Developer tab, and then point and click to find the macro of interest. “There are more convenient ways to access the macros you build,” said Andrew Nikolishyn of Vesta Solutions. He was the instructor of a day-long seminar on “Visual Basic for Financial Professionals,” held on location at the CFA Society of Toronto on May 1, 2015. In Part 1 of this posting, I described how participants could access the Developer tab to create […]
Better Living Through Topology
“It gets downright annoying when I’m just trying to check my e-mail but I get prompted to answer three security questions,” said Alexis Johnson, voicing a concern shared by many in the audience when fraud detection is so overblown it obstructs ordinary use of software. Johnson, Director of Technical Sales at the big data analytics firm Ayasdi, was the second of two presenters at a webinar on the topic “The Fraud Arms Race” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on April 21, 2015. When it comes to detecting fraud in big data, “data complexity, not volume, is the […]
Tailoring Risk Model to Investment Strategy
Due to the growing complexity of measuring financial risk, “risk has become a patchwork” of different models, said Phil Jacob, Senior Director at Axioma Risk Research. He was the sole presenter in a webinar about tailoring the right risk model to your investment strategy held on March 4, 2015, and sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Jacob identified four inherent challenges. “There are operational issues stemming from existing rigid approaches,” leading to “difficulty in aggregating risk.” There is a lack of consistency in modeling portfolios, which can run the gamut from very simple proxies all the way […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 2
The team of Scott L. Smith, Jesse Weiher, and Debra Fuller at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) use specialized financial models to estimate potential losses. They carried out empirical tests of countercyclical shocks using four different models of mortgage credit risk. This posting continues a February 4, 2015, presentation by Scott L. Smith to an audience of financial risk managers at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Two models were devised at FHFA, and two are commercially available credit models: one, called Black Knight (formerly LPS-AA), and the other called ADCO Loan Dynamics. The estimated losses were converted to a capital […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 1
“One needs to be careful and not over-reliant on any one model,” said Scott L. Smith, Associate Director for Capital Policy at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). He was referring to the financial models used by major financial institutions to estimate potential losses. On February 4, 2015, he was presenting a GARP-sponsored webinar on countercyclical stress tests to set capital requirements. Smith explained how credit risk is measured for mortgages, and described a way to embed stress testing that uses countercyclical concepts. He and colleague Jesse Weiher, Senior Economist at FHFA, performed dynamic stress testing that was adjusted to […]
Investing in Emotional Assets
When Morty discovered my vacation plans this year included Cremona, that put a bee in his bonnet. Did I know it was the home of the famous Stradivarius workshop? Was I going there to check out violins? Yes and no, I said. My preference was to cycle along the Po valley and sip espresso near the Zodiac Tower. “Maybe you should think twice about your visit,” Morty said. “I happen to have it on good authority that beautiful collectibles can be a solid component of your portfolio.” “Please Morty, don’t make wild-eyed guesses about other people’s money,” I said. Especially […]
Interview with William Bernstein: The Paradox of Wealth
I could hear the laughter from down the hall. “Cheeseburger,” cried Morty. Cheeseburger? I saw he was holding a back issue of the Financial Analysts Journal. (It’s no secret that we fall behind on our reading here during the busy months.) “You’ve gotta interview this guy,” declared Morty. “Anyone who can work the word ‘cheeseburger’ into the pages of this esteemed journal… well… he likely has something interesting to say.” William Bernstein did indeed have some very interesting things to say. The interview below is the vegan-friendly edition, though; if you want to see ‘cheeseburger’ in print you’ll have to […]