Shelter Inflation
The welcome news this summer is that the overall rate of inflation is easing up, both in the U.S., where it has dropped to its lowest level in over two years, and to a lesser extent, in Canada, where in July, Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.8 percent. Gasoline is pulling the inflation rate down, while food and mortgages were pushing it up. How has the U.S. housing market responded to the rise in interest rates? How do recent trends in the cost of house prices and rents affect the likelihood of future shelter inflation? “Various market indicators, including house […]
The Achilles Heel of Banking
After last decade’s financial crisis, regulators introduced several new measures to reduce systemic risk in the financial system. How are the new safeguards working? What are the implications for future balance sheet structure? The CFA Society Toronto convened a panel of three experts on November 25, 2020, to discuss the new regulatory capital and liquidity frameworks and how they are reshaping the way Canadian banks approach the market. The webinar, including a Q&A session, was moderated by Nigel D’Souza, Investment Analyst, Veritas Investment Research. “There’s no doubt the financial crisis changed balance sheets,” said Bruce Choy, Managing Director (Former Risk […]
Psychology of Money
In 2009, award-winning journalist Morgan Housel was awash in information about the 2008 financial collapse. Yet, try as he might, he could not find the answer to the question: “Why did people behave the way they did?” This is what led him to start formulating notes for what became a blog, and eventually a book titled The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness (Harriman House, 2020). The book was launched on September 8. “What is a person’s relationship with greed and fear? The psychological side of investing is the most important side,” Housel said, “because if you […]
Impact of Covid-19: Economics
How is the world grappling with the Covid-19 Pandemic, especially in the realm of economics? The magazine the Economist presented a webinar on July 30, 2020, titled “The Inside Story: The Impact of Covid-19.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at the Economist, interviewed a science writer and an economics editor. This is part two of a two-part summary of that webinar. The second panellist was Henry Cur, an economics editor. He said the economic crisis precipitated by the pandemic is markedly different from “garden variety recessions.” “The scale of unemployment is greater than the 2008 downturn,” he said, “and […]
Machine learning sniffs out corruption
“Bribery and corruption are by-products of risk culture,” said Aparna Gupta, Associate Professor at Lally School of Management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. “We can take a step back and devise methods to detect it using textual data and machine learning.” Gupta was the second of two speakers at the one-hour webinar “Corruption and Corporate Governance” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on October 30, 2019. Since culture is intangible, empirical work on the relation between risk culture and risk management is limited. Traditional approaches for assessing risk culture have many drawbacks such as bias and lack of comparability. Nonetheless, […]
Barcodes of Finance 4
7. Will blockchain technology affect the drive toward barcodes? It most definitely should—and in a positive way. The maintenance of a distributed database of identifiers, both for participants and products traded throughout the global financial supply chain is the easiest global blockchain infrastructure application to be developed. A global database of all the world’s participant and product identifiers, maybe a half billion records, is limited in scale, both as to data recorded in its distributed ledger and in its limits of processing speed—seconds required, at the most. Both parameters of speed and scale are well within the boundaries of current […]
Barcodes of Finance 3
5. Great, the G20 set up the Financial Stability Board to set things straight. So, what’s the problem? It was thought by all that “regulatory compulsion” at such a global level, overseen by the world’s most prominent collection of leaders of the largest economies, would finally solve the collective action problem that stymied the industry from doing this on their own. Industry members could not justify stepping aside from each firm’s own self-interest in maintaining the status quo. It would be costly to re-engineer legacy systems built in convoluted increments over the previous six decades. Everyone without exception wanted to […]
Barcodes of Finance 2
3. What allowed non-standard transaction date to persist and what was your response? I had spent my whole career in various sectors of finance and as an advisor to many financial institutions as a consulting Partner with PwC, responsible for the Financial Services sector. I saw the same sets of transaction data described differently in each firm, even though they would need to match perfectly between firms in order to confirm the transaction with the counterparty and either receive payment or pay for it. This disorder was managed by delaying the payment until all the details were reconciled, first by […]
Barcodes of Finance 1
After the holidays, Morty was bragging he’d been out to a new, very swanky seafood restaurant. “The maître d’ said they’re planning to bring in seafood barcodes.” I immediately pictured a slab of fish on Styrofoam with the price barcode sticker on it—straight from my local supermarket. “And this is at a high-end place?” I said skeptically. “Yeah, but it’s an identifier code, not a price sticker. It’s so the customer can verify they’re getting what they’re paying for,” he said. “Apparently there’s a big push to identify species, and make the information available.” Talking about fish barcodes reminded me […]
Origins of Canadian Banking
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 triggered a worldwide recession. The American and European banking systems experienced massive losses, takeovers, and taxpayer-funded bailouts. Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, European debt crisis, … and the after-effects are still being felt. Canada’s banking system did have some shaky moments, as a recently published analysis of its asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) predicament showed. On the whole, however, Canada’s banks withstood the financial crisis relatively well and the financial system maintained its liquidity, solvency, and profitability. The history of the divergence in the Canadian and American banking systems is recounted in a new book. From […]