Shelter Inflation
The welcome news this summer is that the overall rate of inflation is easing up, both in the U.S., where it has dropped to its lowest level in over two years, and to a lesser extent, in Canada, where in July, Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.8 percent. Gasoline is pulling the inflation rate down, while food and mortgages were pushing it up. How has the U.S. housing market responded to the rise in interest rates? How do recent trends in the cost of house prices and rents affect the likelihood of future shelter inflation? “Various market indicators, including house […]
Heat Lowers the GDP
Every season, but particularly summer, reminds us that global warming is occurring at an alarming rate. The average global temperature will continue to rise over time if people do not take substantial action to reduce greenhouse gases, especially carbon emissions. What effect will soaring temperatures have on economic productivity? How will warming effects be distributed over the globe? Will these have a long-lasting effect on the GDP? Recent research by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) delves into these questions. “Our findings show that total global losses in output per person could be substantial,” say the […]
Heated Exchange
Climate-related natural disasters are increasing in frequency and severity and costs. Since climate change is not equal across countries, how does a country’s exchange rate respond to such shocks? Furthermore, is it possible to build an economic model to predict future changes? On April 6, 2023, Galina Hale, professor of economics at the University of California at Santa Cruz, delivered a webinar about the effect of climate change on exchange rates. This was part of the series of talks sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), titled the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics. She reported results from […]
Disruptions, Costs & Markets
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused supply chain disruptions. How much have the costs of international trade increased? What impact has this had on the U.S. economy? What is the effect on labor force participation? Can existing models properly quantify these effects? Recent research by three leading economists tried to model the real-life situation of U.S. dependence on a global supply chain and what happened when parts of that chain were broken. (“Broken” encompasses several scenarios: “ports being closed or operating at partial capacity, fewer workers being available for health reasons, and a shortage of shipping containers, among other challenges.”) On […]
Tools to Fight Global Warming
Investors realize something must be done to mitigate global warming. The financial system needs reliable tools, or performance indicators, that can measure how well financial portfolios align with the Paris Agreement goals. But what, exactly, are these indicators? On April 26, 2022, two specialists described the technical side of measuring portfolio alignment with current efforts to combat climate change. The webinar was sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and was moderated by Jo Paisley, President, GARP Risk Institute. The movement toward portfolio alignment tools (PAT) is an outgrowth from the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference, commonly referred to as COP […]
Climate Risk Assessment
Storms, floods, fires, drought: what are the potential hazards threatening the physical assets of different regions? Furthermore, how can we estimate the magnitude of physical risk of each of these under a climate change scenario? “We’ve built infrastructure for certain weather patterns,” said Rohan Hamden, “but now it no longer fits with the weather we are experiencing.” Hamden is the founder and CEO of XDI, the Cross-Dependency Initiative, a company focused on Cross Dependency Analytics to estimate the physical risk to assets of many kinds of hazards. He was invited to share his expertise in physical risk data, modeling, and […]
“Confront Their Reluctance”
“We believe women need to confront their reluctance to consider a leadership role and work actively to counter it with a more positive response.” This clarion call is issued by two top leaders in the academic and corporate world. Indira Samarasekera was the first woman president of the University of Alberta, and a director of Magna International, TC Energy, and Stelco. Martha Piper was the first woman president of the University of British Columbia, and a director of the Bank of Montreal, Shoppers Drug Mart, and TransAlta Corporation. Although neither was born in Canada, both are officers of the Order […]
COP 26: The End Game
“The first week is usually a disappointment,” said Catherine Brahic, environment editor at the Economist magazine, “but this [second] week, the attendees are pushing ahead the goals. Now we are in the end game.” On November 11, 2021, the Economist magazine sponsored a webinar featuring two panellists: an editor and a science writer. Before an audience of thousands, each gave a firsthand account of what they had been seeing while they attended the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference, commonly referred to as COP 26, in Glasgow, Scotland. “The drafts of the papers have come out—they look simple for starters,” Brahic said, […]
The Decisive Decade
Raging, uncontrollable forest fires. Prolonged heat domes, causing hundreds of deaths. Catastrophic storms. Flash floods. These are just a few of the effects of climate change being felt this year. Are the countries of the world acting quickly enough to prevent irreversible damage? Two months ahead of the upcoming COP26 negotiations in Glasgow, two editors from the magazine the Economist discussed their expectations of this crucial conference in a webinar on September 23, 2021, before an audience of hundreds. Oliver Morton, the Economist’s Briefings senior editor, and Catherine Brahic, Environment editor, discussed the recent findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate […]
Death of Fundamental Analysis?
Have you been following the market frenzy around stocks for GameStop, AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond? Or the news on Wall Street Bets and Robinhood? How disruptive are these events for traditional valuation methods? What new factors must be considered when investing and allocating capital? Recent shifts in market dynamics have altered the perception of capital markets in meaningful ways. On April 8, 2021, the Corporate Finance Committee of the CFA Society of Toronto convened a panel of experts to discuss the reasons market valuations are so out of synch with fundamental analysis. Moderator Stephen Foerster, Professor of Finance […]