Leveraging Risk Analytics. Part 2
“To drive competitive value, a business must build situational context,” said Tom Kimner, Head of Americas Risk Practice & Global Risk Products at SAS. “And it’s extremely important to take the holistic view.” He was the second of two speakers at a GARP webinar on September 17, 2013 on leveraging risk analytics to drive competitive advantage. To build situational context, Kimner noted the analytics system must provide prediction and data mining, alternative sourcing, and optimization. “Build context for the data as it is used.” The different types of return metrics will help determine what is “best” in relative terms. Kimner […]
Leveraging Risk Analytics. Part 1
“The new risk management role has a dual responsibility: to the organization, and to achieve business goals. When they contradict each other, the business profitability must come first,” said Boaz Galinson, VP and Head of Credit Risk Modeling and Measurement at Bank Leumi. He was the first of two speakers at a GARP webinar on leveraging risk analytics to drive competitive advantage held September 17, 2013. Galinson referred to the Accenture 2011 Global Risk Management Survey of the 400 biggest corporations (including the 40 biggest banks). Of the respondents, 93 percent said that “sustainability of future profitability” was important or […]
Modeling Sovereign Risk. Part 2: Quantification
“The Bloomberg sovereign risk model starts by dividing countries into two types,” said Rajan Singenellore, “reserve-currency countries and non-reserve currency countries. Everything else depends on that distinction.” Singenellore is Product Manager, Risk & Valuations at Bloomberg and was the second of two speakers to address a GARP webinar audience on September 12, 2013. A reserve-currency country is one whose currency is held in significant quantities by other governments as part of their foreign exchange reserves, such as the US and the Japan. There is a pressing need for quantification in the area of sovereign credit risk, he said, citing as […]
Modeling Sovereign Risk. Part 1: Emerging Markets
“Country-specific factors such as government debt and the sovereign credit rating change slowly but global aggregates such as the risk appetite change quickly, thus leading to confusion the part of observers,” said Michael Rosenberg, Foreign Exchange Consultant, Bloomberg and author of Currency Forecasting: A Guide to Fundamental and Technical Models of Exchange Rate Determination. He was the first of two speakers to address a GARP webinar audience on September 12, 2013. Much of Rosenberg’s talk focused on the sovereign credit risk of emerging markets (EM), because the accelerating flow of net private capital into EM from 1980-2014 has been unprecedented. […]
Quant Chalkboard: A New Way to Aggregate
The Gumbel copula is the best way to aggregate losses in economic capital, says Yimin Yang, Director of Model Risk and Capital Management Practice at Protiviti, a global consulting firm. “This copula has asymmetrical behaviour and can model fat tails the best” of the numerous copulas he has tried recently. He was speaking at a GARP webinar on August 20, 2013. Yang began by explaining that a copula was a broad class of mathematical function that could be used to describe the joint distribution function between two or more other functions. Such a joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) must determine […]
Basel III and Beyond: Part 2. Real-Time Counterparty Risk
“Implementing the CVA is a journey with great expectations,” said James Zante, Product Manager for Integrated Market and Credit Risk at IBM Risk Analytics. He was the second of two speakers on the topic of counterparty risk assessment. He presented a real-life case to a GARP webinar audience on June 27, 2013. CVA refers to a new capital charge, the credit valuation adjustment brought in as part of the Basel III regulations. The CVA plays an important role in the optimization of credit capital, said Zante. At one extreme, the trades cleared through the clearinghouse may be considered “risk free,” […]
Basel III and Beyond: Part 1. Optimization with On-Demand Risk Insights
“The capital consumption of credit counterparty risk has become an issue for banks,” said Rita Gnutti, Head of Internal Model Market and Counterparty Risk at Intesa Sanpaolo. She was the first of two speakers addressing the impact of regulatory developments on counterparty risk assessment. She spoke to a webinar audience arranged by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 27, 2013. Gnutti first outlined the new Basel III regulatory framework of credit counterparty risk (CCR), then she described its calculation using internal model methodology (IMM), and third she described the computing and back-testing of CCR carried out by her […]
Basel III and Beyond: Capital Management and Funding Strategies
“Banking profitability will remain below pre-financial crisis levels for the near term,” said Mario Onorato, Senior Director, Balance Sheet and Capital Management at IBM and Visiting Professor at Cass Business School in London, UK. He was addressing a June 25, 2013 webinar organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on the effects of Basel III. Banks have potential funding problems due to mismatched maturity periods, among other challenges. Onorato cited a Goldman Sachs report that forecasts a 1 percent decline year-over-year in revenue for banks in North America. There were comparable dismal reports by Citi and UBS about […]
Risk Models: From Governance to Validation: Part 3. Examples
“The calculation of the spread on the tranches is quite involved but essentially boils down to dependencies between names,” said Frederic Siboulet, Principal at iEpsilon and the third of three speakers at a GARP webinar on risk models held June 11, 2013. The tranches in structured credit products he referred to were apparently diversified, but in reality not so. Siboulet chose to illustrate the subtle and embedded risk of models with actual structured product examples. In particular, he said that “We must not overlook the importance of the parameters and their interpretation.” The first example involved stressed correlation within a […]
Risk Models From Governance to Validation: Part 2. A Model of Model Management
No longer should a firm just use financial models; it should have a “model of model management,” said Donna Howe, Chief Risk Officer at Sovereign Bank. She was the second of three speakers at a June 11, 2013 webinar on risk models organized by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Such a “meta-model” would help a firm sort and track models. Howe said that risk models must be understood within the wider frame of compliance and other non-prudential risk. Model parsimony, or Occam’s razor, that was recommended by the first speaker, is good but in the real world “cannot […]