analysis

New World Order 1

From trade wars to 5G technology, issues in China are having an impact on the Canadian investment environment and capital flow decisions. What effect will China’s ascendance have on the global economy? What is the best strategy to ride the wave upward? What are potential danger areas? On June 15, 2020, Herbert Zhang, the chair of the institutional asset management committee of the CFA Society Toronto, welcomed three panellists at the webinar titled, “New World Order: How China’s Rising Affects Investment Strategy.” The panellists shared their thoughts on how investors should view US-China trade tensions and deal with the associated […]

Inside Story, South America

How are different parts of the world reacting to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and how does that affect those who must analyze and report on global geopolitical risk? The magazine The Economist presented a webinar on May 28, 2020, titled “Inside Story: Reporting on the Covid-19 Pandemic Around the World.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at The Economist, interviewed two outstanding foreign correspondents. This is part two of a two-part summary. The second panellist was Sarah Maslin, foreign correspondent for The Economist, South America. She spoke from her home in São Paulo, which is decorated with scarves from soccer teams […]

Inside Story, Southeast Asia

How are different parts of the world reacting to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and how does that affect those who must analyze and report on global geopolitical risk? Much depends on having a strong and trusted network of contacts, was the consensus of the panel convened by the magazine The Economist, which presented a webinar on May 28, 2020, titled “Inside Story: Reporting on the Covid-19 Pandemic Around the World.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at The Economist, interviewed two outstanding foreign correspondents, from vastly different parts of the world. She also ran a Q & A session with an […]

“Disasters Everywhere”

What is the cost of a disaster? What is the cost of the business cycle? Economically speaking, how do business cycles compare with disasters? The cost of business cycles and the gain to be had from stabilization policy is a highly controversial topic in macroeconomics. Some believe the welfare gains from stabilizing the business cycle are extremely low and therefore not worth the effort. “Depression prevention and stabilization policies are central to the discipline of macroeconomics,” conclude the authors of recent research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. “Extreme and costly events are not the only reason […]

Handling cloud data

A silver lining of any crisis is that experts get a data point… or many data points, depending on what that crisis is. The lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic, as bitter and hard-won as they might be, will find a use. It is the event that will test in real life whether the infrastructure already put in place will respond well. “Covid 19 is a black swan event,” said Patrick McFadin, Apache Cassandra and Developer Relations at DataStax. He was the second speaker for the webinar, “Cloud Native Data: The Foundation of Modern Business,” presented through The Briefing Room on […]

The Value of Data

What is the value of data? Who benefits from data? Can you construct a decent predictive model to manage risk if you have lousy data? Some enterprising souls have tried to sell their data back to the tech giants that collect and use big datasets. There are even some small companies such as CitizenMe and Datum that pay a user for taking a quiz or sending location data. “Data are far from becoming a standardized commodity whose value can readily be established through trades,” writes Diane Coyle, professor at University of Cambridge, in a report she tabled February 26, 2020, […]

From brown energy to green

How will climate change affect the financial sector and the broader economy? What policy responses will mitigate climate change risks? Recently, the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) sponsored the first conference dedicated to exploring the economic and financial risks associated with climate change. “Climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system,” says the report summarizing the main themes of the conference. The report, released on December 16, 2019, was co-authored by Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch. Hale is a research advisor and Jordà and Rudebusch are both senior policy advisors at the Federal […]

Machine learning sniffs out corruption

“Bribery and corruption are by-products of risk culture,” said Aparna Gupta, Associate Professor at Lally School of Management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. “We can take a step back and devise methods to detect it using textual data and machine learning.” Gupta was the second of two speakers at the one-hour webinar “Corruption and Corporate Governance” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on October 30, 2019. Since culture is intangible, empirical work on the relation between risk culture and risk management is limited. Traditional approaches for assessing risk culture have many drawbacks such as bias and lack of comparability. Nonetheless, […]

Finding a New Balance

How can monetary policy achieve price stability and full employment objectives in the midst of a changing economic environment? Lately, the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) has been thinking hard about new ways to control inflation, given the new economic headwinds. “Persistently low inflation presents a new problem for monetary policymakers,” said Mary C. Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF). On August 29, 2019, she gave a speech to a conference of economists and policymakers in Wellington, NZ. This was a significant venue, because inflation targeting was pioneered in New Zealand in 1990, […]

Missing the Mark

“In the spring a young man’s fancy lightly turns to thoughts of buying a house,” Morty said, as he put the latest issue of the Financial Analysts Journal on my desk. We don’t often paraphrase Tennyson in the office, so this caught my attention. “You’re not thinking of moving again, are you?” I said. “No, but I always keep my eye on the market,” he said. “You should check out what these economists are saying.” So I did. First I read the FHFA working paper, by the team of Alexander Bogin, William Doerner, and William Larson. “Missing the Mark: Mortgage […]