Watch Out for Hippos
Is your company managing risk well enough to make the most of opportunities as they appear? Or does it suffer from risk paralysis? As a company matures, it moves from trying to identify all possible risks (and mitigating them), to saying “what risks will give me the chance to pursue an opportunity,” said Martin Pergler, Founder and Principal of Balanced Risk Strategies, Ltd. He was the first of two panellists at the webinar titled Explore Your Opportunity Landscape by Harnessing Your Risks, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on November 18, 2015. Pergler began by making a memorable […]
Harnessing Your Risks
Before your company undertakes economic risks, what systems should be firmly in place? “Good risk management allows us to take risks we wouldn’t normally do,” said Brenda Boultwood , Senior Vice President of GRC Solutions at MetricStream. (GRC is the acronym for governance, risk management and compliance.) She was the second of two panellists at the webinar titled Explore Your Opportunity Landscape by Harnessing Your Risks, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on November 18, 2015. A company needs superior risk intelligence in order to understand the risks they plan to harness. Technology can be leveraged to capitalize […]
Conference Call Tones. Part 2
Click here to visit Part 1. Interview with S. McKay Price, continued. Q: In the introduction to your paper on textual analysis of conference call tones, you describe a 2012 conference call in which David Einhorn grilled the management team of Herbalife, thereby causing the shares to fall 20 percent in price. Did you run the transcript of this conference call through your call tone algorithm, and if so, was it the most negative sample in the set? 2012 was not in our sample period so we did not specifically create tone measures for that Herbalife call. Although I suppose […]
Conference Call Tones. Part 1
“Spin,” said Morty. “It’s all about spin.” He pointed to the web interface where he was listening to a certain equipment manufacturing company try to explain anomalies in their reported expenses. Like hyenas, the analysts were picking apart the footnotes. Turning to me, Morty said, “These scoundrels are masters of Orwellian doublespeak,” and then he exited the call. About a year later, I chanced upon research that looks into actual word usage during earnings conference calls. Three authors, Paul Brockman, Xu Li, and S. McKay Price, examined transcripts from nearly three thousand such calls. One of the authors is interviewed […]
Liquidity: A Change in Governance
Have you noticed that financial risk managers talk and think differently about liquidity risk, compared to pre-crisis days? The 2007-08 financial crisis was a watershed in the evolution of liquidity management, according to Nicolas Kunghehian, Director Solutions Specialist at Moody’s Analytics. He was the second of three presenters on liquidity risk compliance at a webinar on June 25, 2015, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. “Before the crisis, there was only one team dedicated to monitoring and managing liquidity,” Kunghehian said. Liquidity risk was assumed to be small, and the Treasury department was chiefly fine-tuning the profit and […]
Effective Risk Reporting
Effective risk reporting means “having the intelligence at your fingertips but exercising the judgment to report only what your company needs,” said Elizabeth Abraham, Director of Professional Services at MetricStream, and the second of two presenters at the June 16, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Reporting sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. “Lack of clarity about the reporting objective” is a common barrier to effective enterprise risk management reporting, she said. Make sure you understand what level of information the audience wants. “Data model inconsistencies can lead to an inability to aggregate” the risk estimates, and that’s another […]
“Not Only The What But The How”
When it comes to financial data for stress testing, there’s a good news-bad news aspect. The good news may be that a bank did not suffer severe financial stress but the bad news is that it will be harder for the bank to model “bad events” if it does not have such data. And banks “will get written up if [the regulators] don’t believe their bad events,” said Tara Heusé Skinner, Manager at SAS Risk Research & Quantitative Solutions, and co-author of The Bank Executive’s Guide to Enterprise Risk Management. She was the first presenter of two at the May […]
Hum a Few Bars and I’ll Fake It
How far can you go at reducing the tedium in your spreadsheet usage? On May 1, 2015, nearly twenty people attended a day-long seminar “Visual Basic for Financial Professionals,” held on location at the CFA Society of Toronto. The seminar was conducted by Andrew Nikolishyn, CFA, of Vesta Solutions. I often use Microsoft Excel as a scratch pad and a tally sheet, but lately I’ve had to do connected tasks on a regular basis, involving recent financial data. I prepare a graph from the data, and I also run a simple present value calculation, to compare with the previous month’s […]
Better Living Through Topology
“It gets downright annoying when I’m just trying to check my e-mail but I get prompted to answer three security questions,” said Alexis Johnson, voicing a concern shared by many in the audience when fraud detection is so overblown it obstructs ordinary use of software. Johnson, Director of Technical Sales at the big data analytics firm Ayasdi, was the second of two presenters at a webinar on the topic “The Fraud Arms Race” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on April 21, 2015. When it comes to detecting fraud in big data, “data complexity, not volume, is the […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 2
The team of Scott L. Smith, Jesse Weiher, and Debra Fuller at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) use specialized financial models to estimate potential losses. They carried out empirical tests of countercyclical shocks using four different models of mortgage credit risk. This posting continues a February 4, 2015, presentation by Scott L. Smith to an audience of financial risk managers at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Two models were devised at FHFA, and two are commercially available credit models: one, called Black Knight (formerly LPS-AA), and the other called ADCO Loan Dynamics. The estimated losses were converted to a capital […]