Platform of the Future
What will be the ideal modelling platform of future bankers? It will need to contain key functionalities in model execution, scenario management, and a “risk engine” that will deliver answers for multiple horizons at the loan level. Furthermore, it should implement the most advanced modelling suites, reduce the quants’ time to develop models, and contain simulation capabilities for stress testing and beyond. This bold vision of the future was presented by Martim Rocha, Advisory Business Solution Manager at SAS. He was the second of two presenters at the February 25, 2016, webinar offered by the Global Association of Risk Professionals […]
Integrated Data and Modelling
How can today’s bankers prepare for tomorrow’s challenges? Consider the financial models built using available data. Data collection and financial modelling used to be conducted in each different silos of the bank, with credit separate from market, which was separate from treasury and other groups). Then data became “managed” and modelling was moved to “platforms” which did not mix well between the various silos. A few brave souls began to integrate the data management for different groups of the bank. Other brave souls tried to integrate the modelling. This was the phase of integration achieved through batch calculations. Now, the […]
Currency Option Trading Strategies
Throughout 2015 currency volatility has been increasing, even among established currencies such as the Swiss franc. Persistent exchange rate volatility can be an especially serious problem for currencies of emerging economies. Central banks often intervene by using foreign exchange reserves to purchase and sell foreign currency directly in the spot market. This relies on the continuous accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which may be very difficult for emerging economies. How, then, can the central banks of such nations best manage currency fluctuations? In 2007-8, when the Colombian peso exchange rate was volatile, the Colombian central bank tried various strategies in […]
Watch Out for Hippos
Is your company managing risk well enough to make the most of opportunities as they appear? Or does it suffer from risk paralysis? As a company matures, it moves from trying to identify all possible risks (and mitigating them), to saying “what risks will give me the chance to pursue an opportunity,” said Martin Pergler, Founder and Principal of Balanced Risk Strategies, Ltd. He was the first of two panellists at the webinar titled Explore Your Opportunity Landscape by Harnessing Your Risks, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on November 18, 2015. Pergler began by making a memorable […]
Harnessing Your Risks
Before your company undertakes economic risks, what systems should be firmly in place? “Good risk management allows us to take risks we wouldn’t normally do,” said Brenda Boultwood , Senior Vice President of GRC Solutions at MetricStream. (GRC is the acronym for governance, risk management and compliance.) She was the second of two panellists at the webinar titled Explore Your Opportunity Landscape by Harnessing Your Risks, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on November 18, 2015. A company needs superior risk intelligence in order to understand the risks they plan to harness. Technology can be leveraged to capitalize […]
Topology Can Streamline Modelling
How can software systematize and optimize the routine tasks in building financial risk models? “We use topology to inform feature selection, and then we examine a range of models,” said Mukund Ramachandran, Data Scientist at Ayasdi. He was the third of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. In the course of evaluating potential models, several statistical tests are applied. “Machine intelligence considers the entire high dimensional space jointly,” he said. Machine learning is capable of applying hundreds of algorithms and different combinations, “but […]
Machine Intelligence + Business Intuition
Given the exponential growth in data complexity, how can you, the risk manager, quickly determine the most salient economic factors to include in calculating a bank’s risk exposure? Nowadays, modelling risk is all about “speed, accuracy, and defensibility,” said Patrick Rogers, Head of Marketing at the software company Ayasdi. Risk models must be developed “in a relatively short time window and must be statistically valid.” Since risk models must be defensible to business owners and industry regulators, and simple to explain, the ordinary “black box” machine learning would fall flat, Rogers said. He was the second of three panellists at […]
“Tons of Models, Tons of Variables”
With so many economic variables, and such a wide choice of parameters, do you feel overwhelmed by the task of producing the best financial model possible? Is there a systematic approach to exploring models? “Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a focus on stress testing,” which requires robust financial models, said Roderick Powell, Director of Market and Treasury Risk at the consulting company KPMG. He was the first of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. “Building those models is a time-consuming, […]
Lagging in Technology Solutions
When it comes to new regulatory requirements for advanced models in financial stress testing, are banks meeting expectations? Over the past two years, relatively good progress has been made in financial models and managing data for stress testing, said Tom Kimner, Director of Global Risk Operations at SAS, “but less progress has been made in technology and reporting.” He was the second of two panellists at a webinar on September 22, 2015, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). He was presenting the findings from a survey report, “Stress Testing: A View from the Trenches,” that was jointly […]
Rising to the Challenge
What kinds of financial institutions are scrambling to comply with new regulatory requirements for financial stress testing? In 2015, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) conducted its first industry survey to see how banking institutions worldwide were coping with more stringent regulations. They produced a report, “Stress Testing: A View from the Trenches,” and on September 22, 2015, two panellists presented their findings during a webinar to members of GARP. “Institutions on the whole are purposefully addressing the challenges,” said Jeff Kutler, Editor-in-Chief of Risk Intelligence at GARP. “There has been significant progress in data, modeling, and scenario management.” […]