Credible Scenarios
What are the best practices for environmental and climate risk management in the financial sector? Are the standard input scenarios actually suitable for financial modeling? Economic scenarios are an essential tool in assessing the financial risks of the ever-changing world. Given that the average global temperature is increasing, and storms are becoming more severe, year over year, those who construct financial models of risk must set up new, realistic scenarios. Estimating gains and losses on portfolios is difficult because of the deep uncertainty of climate impacts, but modelers must start somewhere. “Using relevant scenarios is crucial,” said Irene Monasterolo, Professor […]
Adapting Agricultural Trade
Climate change affects, and will continue to affect, agricultural productivity around the world. It is one of the inescapable ironies of our times that sub-Saharan Africa will be severely affected by climate change, despite how little it has contributed to global carbon emissions. How severe will these effects be? And is there any way to mitigate the effect on the most susceptible nations, besides curbing emissions, which appears to be a losing strategy? “Agriculture is a vulnerable sector because it is fed by rain and it is near the limits of thermal tolerance to begin with,” said Obie Porteous, Associate […]
A Storied Career
How is asset management evolving? What forces are re-shaping the financial industry? And what lessons were learned over the career path of one financial wizard? On June 23, 2025, the CFA Institute released the video of a far-reaching interview with Kenneth Blay, Head of Research, Global Thought Leadership at investment management company Invesco. “I started ‘in the dregs’ as a stockbroker,” Blay reminisced, “cold calling and pitching stocks before moving into research.” He noticed he was giving different recommendations for portfolios than his colleagues were, and he wondered why that wasn’t explored more systematically. Later, with Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz, Blay did […]
Plugging into Progress
Many countries signed on to the 2016 Paris Agreement, but nine years later, how many are actively working toward decarbonization? Watchdog organizations are evaluating the progress made year over year and will encourage the 195 or so signing parties to keep the commitments they made. One such organization is the independent scientific project Climate Action Tracker (CAT), whose main graphic summarizes the goals. On May 21, 2025, the Climate Action Tracker group presented a webinar, “Plugging Into Progress: Evaluating Power Sector Decarbonization,” in which four experts on climate risk discussed the progress, or lack thereof. Louise Jeffrey began the session. […]
The Growing Protection Gap
According to a CoreLogic survey, roughly 35 million homes, or nearly a third of the nation’s housing stock, are at “high risk” of a natural disaster. How much are U.S. households willing to pay for insurance? Will this give adequate coverage? And what do changes in demand imply for the future of insurance markets? “Climate losses are increasing, with homeowners insurance premiums rising in tandem,” said Pari Sastry, Assistant Professor of Finance at Columbia Business School, “and there is widespread concern that rising premiums are making insurance unaffordable.” Parinitha Sastry was speaking at a webinar on May 15, 2025, presenting […]
What is the Cost of Biodiversity?
Biologists have long known that biodiversity is the key to nature’s resilience. In a biodiverse world, if the environment changes and some organisms can no longer thrive, others can take their place and fulfil functions that are essential to the species’ survival, and ultimately, human survival. Even the lowliest animals play significant roles, such as insects that pollinate—and a third of the food we eat depends crucially on insect pollinators. In addition to its intrinsic value, biodiversity underpins ecosystem services, providing the backbone of the global economy. Biodiversity loss, or the reduction in the genetic diversity of life forms, can […]
The Case for C.B.A.M.
In 2003, a devastating heat wave in Europe killed an estimated 70,000 Europeans, many of them elderly people living alone. This, and a series of other extreme weather events, have persuaded many countries to take climate change seriously. The European Union enacted the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). It came into effect as of October 1, 2023, and is designed to account for the carbon cost of producing imported goods, with the ultimate aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. “I’m a huge fan of CBAM,” Catherine Wolfram, professor of economics at MIT Sloan, said, joking that the name sounded like something […]
Distributional consequences
Climate change marches on. To prepare for worse storms, droughts, and wildfires, the infrastructure must be improved. Governments have different ways to handle the costs of adapting to climate change. How will these additional costs be borne? “Transition to a carbon-neutral economy is at the top of the policy agenda around the globe,” said Moritz Kuhn, professor of economics at the University of Mannheim. Private households account for about two-thirds of carbon emissions. “Governments can introduce policies to speed up the adoption of green technologies,” he said, but the heterogeneity of consumption and carbon emissions could present problems. These will […]
How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth?
More workers than ever before are being exposed to heat stress worldwide, according to a 2024 report. Heat stress has a knock-on effect for productivity and thus the gross domestic product (GDP). How much does a permanent rise in temperature decrease the GDP? Economists have tried to estimate the size of the climate change effect, in variously affected countries, with different models and different assumptions. “There’s a wide divergence in projections of how the GDP will change depending on climate change,” said Valery Ramey, Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution and Research Associate at National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). She was […]
Investing? Climate Matters
How will climate change affect investment decisions, going forward? Are investment professionals well informed on climate risk and transition risk? “Around the world, nations are committing to net-zero emissions targets of greenhouse gases,” said Richard MacGillivray, Senior Director at CFA Institute. “What are the implications of these commitments for the value and performance of companies in the real economy?” The 2024 Global Risks Report tabled by the World Economic Forum (WEF) polled risk managers on the biggest global threat to sustainability. Over the next two years, respondents said the top risk is misinformation and disinformation. However, over the next ten […]