New World Order 2
From state-owned enterprises to the Covid-19 pandemic, issues in China affect the Canadian investment environment and capital flow decisions. Given China’s ascendance in the global economy, what is the best strategy to ride the wave upward, too? What are potential danger areas? The following is the second half of a report on the webinar “New World Order: How China’s Rising Affects Investment Strategy” held on June 15, 2020, and sponsored by the CFA Society Toronto. Three panellists were interviewed by Tanya Lai, Managing Director, Public Equities, of the Investment Management Company of Ontario (IMCO). Lai noted there was increased scrutiny […]
New World Order 1
From trade wars to 5G technology, issues in China are having an impact on the Canadian investment environment and capital flow decisions. What effect will China’s ascendance have on the global economy? What is the best strategy to ride the wave upward? What are potential danger areas? On June 15, 2020, Herbert Zhang, the chair of the institutional asset management committee of the CFA Society Toronto, welcomed three panellists at the webinar titled, “New World Order: How China’s Rising Affects Investment Strategy.” The panellists shared their thoughts on how investors should view US-China trade tensions and deal with the associated […]
Inside Story, South America
How are different parts of the world reacting to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and how does that affect those who must analyze and report on global geopolitical risk? The magazine The Economist presented a webinar on May 28, 2020, titled “Inside Story: Reporting on the Covid-19 Pandemic Around the World.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at The Economist, interviewed two outstanding foreign correspondents. This is part two of a two-part summary. The second panellist was Sarah Maslin, foreign correspondent for The Economist, South America. She spoke from her home in São Paulo, which is decorated with scarves from soccer teams […]
Inside Story, Southeast Asia
How are different parts of the world reacting to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and how does that affect those who must analyze and report on global geopolitical risk? Much depends on having a strong and trusted network of contacts, was the consensus of the panel convened by the magazine The Economist, which presented a webinar on May 28, 2020, titled “Inside Story: Reporting on the Covid-19 Pandemic Around the World.” Helen Joyce, executive editor for events at The Economist, interviewed two outstanding foreign correspondents, from vastly different parts of the world. She also ran a Q & A session with an […]
Finding a New Balance
How can monetary policy achieve price stability and full employment objectives in the midst of a changing economic environment? Lately, the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) has been thinking hard about new ways to control inflation, given the new economic headwinds. “Persistently low inflation presents a new problem for monetary policymakers,” said Mary C. Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF). On August 29, 2019, she gave a speech to a conference of economists and policymakers in Wellington, NZ. This was a significant venue, because inflation targeting was pioneered in New Zealand in 1990, […]
Shadow Banking in China
Shadow banking has enjoyed extraordinary growth over the past decade, especially in the emerging markets of China. The implications were discussed in the webinar “Shadow Banking: Standing at the Precipice?” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on August 6, 2019. Cindy Li, a Greater China analyst of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, was the second of two speakers at the one-hour GARP webinar. She said the shadow banking system in China has evolved to a fairly large group of powerful competitors, but that has led to “a build-up of risk” as China’s economic growth slows down. First, […]
Standing at the Precipice?
What is shadow banking, and are the associated risks being properly mitigated? A summary of issues can be found in the webinar “Shadow Banking: Standing at the Precipice?” sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) on August 6, 2019. Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was the first of two speakers at the one-hour webinar. He began by explaining that the shadow banking system prefers to be thought of in “less sinister” terms as “non-bank financial intermediaries” that provide services similar to, but outside of, the regular banking system. He described […]
A Tale of Two Funds
There are helpful and unhelpful models for determining risk-based profit attribution, according to Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk. This is part 2 of his explanation about how to attribute financial performance, given at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. Miller gave an example of two funds. Fund A contains both long and short assets, is market neutral and generates positive alpha. Fund B is a macro fund that is market dependent and whose manager is correct 54 percent of the time. The returns of Funds A and B look very […]
Risk-Based Profit Attribution
“Even the best portfolio managers have bad years due to macroeconomic factors beyond their control,” said Michael B. Miller, founder and CEO, Northstar Risk, to an audience of financial risk professionals. This is Part 1 of his talk about how to attribute performance for financial management at a webinar sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals on June 20, 2018. “We tend to view measurement of risk and performance as separate tasks, but performance can only be fully understood by taking risk into account,” Miller said. Performance is always evaluated relative to something else, such as “the market”—which commonly taken […]
Origins of Canadian Banking
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 triggered a worldwide recession. The American and European banking systems experienced massive losses, takeovers, and taxpayer-funded bailouts. Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, European debt crisis, … and the after-effects are still being felt. Canada’s banking system did have some shaky moments, as a recently published analysis of its asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) predicament showed. On the whole, however, Canada’s banks withstood the financial crisis relatively well and the financial system maintained its liquidity, solvency, and profitability. The history of the divergence in the Canadian and American banking systems is recounted in a new book. From […]