Credible Scenarios
What are the best practices for environmental and climate risk management in the financial sector? Are the standard input scenarios actually suitable for financial modeling? Economic scenarios are an essential tool in assessing the financial risks of the ever-changing world. Given that the average global temperature is increasing, and storms are becoming more severe, year over year, those who construct financial models of risk must set up new, realistic scenarios. Estimating gains and losses on portfolios is difficult because of the deep uncertainty of climate impacts, but modelers must start somewhere. “Using relevant scenarios is crucial,” said Irene Monasterolo, Professor […]
A Storied Career
How is asset management evolving? What forces are re-shaping the financial industry? And what lessons were learned over the career path of one financial wizard? On June 23, 2025, the CFA Institute released the video of a far-reaching interview with Kenneth Blay, Head of Research, Global Thought Leadership at investment management company Invesco. “I started ‘in the dregs’ as a stockbroker,” Blay reminisced, “cold calling and pitching stocks before moving into research.” He noticed he was giving different recommendations for portfolios than his colleagues were, and he wondered why that wasn’t explored more systematically. Later, with Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz, Blay did […]
The Future of Financial Advisors
How have investor expectations and behaviors evolved under the new U.S. administration? With recent strides in artificial intelligence, how is the role of the financial advisor changing? These and other questions were discussed by experts in behavioral finance during a webinar on April 16, 2025, titled “The Future of the Investment Professional: Mastering the Psychology of Investor Behavior.” The panelists touched on issues that will be discussed more fully at the upcoming conference, CFA Institute LIVE 2025 to be held in Chicago, 4-7 May, 2025. The panel moderator, Peter Lazaroff [Photo, RHS], is Chief Investment Officer at Plancorp Private Wealth […]
Decarb Economics 101
To mitigate the consequences of climate change, the world requires international coordination. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed by 195 nations. Its long-term temperature goal is to keep the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2°C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limit the increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), which would reduce the worst effects of climate change. Many countries are developing policies to get themselves on a path toward achieving the agreed-upon 1.5 °C goal. Although present progress may seem piecemeal, in the words of a Chinese proverb, “A great journey begins with a single step.” The figure below […]
The Greenium
Does the average household want to invest in climate-friendly assets? If so, what proportion of assets are earmarked for green investments? What kinds of assets (equity or fixed income) are preferred? “Green investments are popular, but only about one-third of German households have some kind of green account,” said Monika Piazzesi, Professor of Economics at Stanford University. She was speaking at a webinar titled “Household Climate Finance: Theory and Survey Data on Safe and Risky Green Assets,” held on September 7, 2023, as part of the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF). Her […]
The Meerkat Way
Given that climate change is the biggest economic upheaval of our age, what can risk professionals do? What, exactly, is meant by a “net-zero transition,” and why does each organization need a transition plan to reach it? How should risk professionals get started? On May 23, 2023, the membership of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) was invited to a one-hour webinar titled “Net-Zero Transition Plans” that promised to answer these questions and more. Tony Rooke, Executive Director and Head of Transition Finance at the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), delivered the webinar. GFANZ is a global […]
Green Stocks vs. Brown
Comparing the stock prices of climate-friendly (“green”) companies versus non-climate-friendly (“brown”) companies, which type will give better performance? Has this prediction been changing over the past decade—and why? And what are the recent pressures? On March 23, 2023, Michael Bauer, professor of economics at the University of Hamburg, delivered a webinar on green vs. brown stocks as part of the series of talks sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), titled the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics. He reported results from a recent paper co-authored with three other economists appearing in the Journal of Climate Finance. Bauer […]
Chemistry and the Economy
Risks are multiplying and becoming more complex. The chemical industry is intrinsically connected to the economy. Can chemistry help solve the biggest crises facing us today? On December 15, 2022, the American Chemical Society hosted a virtual webinar, “Chemistry and the Economy.” The moderator was Bill Carroll, principal of Carroll Applied Science, who spoke to Paul Hodges, chairman of the Swiss-based strategy consulting firm New Normal. In speaking about risks, Hodges does not beat around the bush. He began with what he called “the four horsemen of the apocalypse.” He stated, “First there was the pandemic and associated supply chain […]
Drivers of Inflation
What is causing the current inflationary environment? How are financial risk managers (FRMs) coping with escalating prices and renewed demand? What are the best strategies for addressing unanticipated inflation—what should a risk manager recommend to hedge against inflation? These and related questions led to a recent survey by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). “In June 2022, we surveyed 350 FRMs and found that most respondents expected inflation to remain high over the next year, followed by a significant reduction in the next five years,” said William May, Senior VP, Global Head of Certifications and Educational Programs, GARP. The survey […]
Steering the Ship
“Board involvement is pivotal… It’s so much easier to get climate risk capability embedded,” said Jo Paisley, President of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). “Our survey found the vast majority of boards have oversight of climate-related risks and opportunities.” She was referring to the report titled Third Annual Global Survey of Climate Risk Management at Financial Firms available from the GARP website since September 2021. Paisley and two other panel members were part of the July 12, 2022, webinar to mark the publication of a joint report from GARP and the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI). […]