Topology Can Streamline Modelling
How can software systematize and optimize the routine tasks in building financial risk models? “We use topology to inform feature selection, and then we examine a range of models,” said Mukund Ramachandran, Data Scientist at Ayasdi. He was the third of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. In the course of evaluating potential models, several statistical tests are applied. “Machine intelligence considers the entire high dimensional space jointly,” he said. Machine learning is capable of applying hundreds of algorithms and different combinations, “but […]
Machine Intelligence + Business Intuition
Given the exponential growth in data complexity, how can you, the risk manager, quickly determine the most salient economic factors to include in calculating a bank’s risk exposure? Nowadays, modelling risk is all about “speed, accuracy, and defensibility,” said Patrick Rogers, Head of Marketing at the software company Ayasdi. Risk models must be developed “in a relatively short time window and must be statistically valid.” Since risk models must be defensible to business owners and industry regulators, and simple to explain, the ordinary “black box” machine learning would fall flat, Rogers said. He was the second of three panellists at […]
“Tons of Models, Tons of Variables”
With so many economic variables, and such a wide choice of parameters, do you feel overwhelmed by the task of producing the best financial model possible? Is there a systematic approach to exploring models? “Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a focus on stress testing,” which requires robust financial models, said Roderick Powell, Director of Market and Treasury Risk at the consulting company KPMG. He was the first of three panellists at the October 27, 2015, webinar on Effective Risk Models Using Machine Intelligence sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. “Building those models is a time-consuming, […]
Lagging in Technology Solutions
When it comes to new regulatory requirements for advanced models in financial stress testing, are banks meeting expectations? Over the past two years, relatively good progress has been made in financial models and managing data for stress testing, said Tom Kimner, Director of Global Risk Operations at SAS, “but less progress has been made in technology and reporting.” He was the second of two panellists at a webinar on September 22, 2015, sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). He was presenting the findings from a survey report, “Stress Testing: A View from the Trenches,” that was jointly […]
Tailoring Risk Model to Investment Strategy
Due to the growing complexity of measuring financial risk, “risk has become a patchwork” of different models, said Phil Jacob, Senior Director at Axioma Risk Research. He was the sole presenter in a webinar about tailoring the right risk model to your investment strategy held on March 4, 2015, and sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Jacob identified four inherent challenges. “There are operational issues stemming from existing rigid approaches,” leading to “difficulty in aggregating risk.” There is a lack of consistency in modeling portfolios, which can run the gamut from very simple proxies all the way […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 2
The team of Scott L. Smith, Jesse Weiher, and Debra Fuller at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) use specialized financial models to estimate potential losses. They carried out empirical tests of countercyclical shocks using four different models of mortgage credit risk. This posting continues a February 4, 2015, presentation by Scott L. Smith to an audience of financial risk managers at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Two models were devised at FHFA, and two are commercially available credit models: one, called Black Knight (formerly LPS-AA), and the other called ADCO Loan Dynamics. The estimated losses were converted to a capital […]
Stress Testing Mortgages. Part 1
“One needs to be careful and not over-reliant on any one model,” said Scott L. Smith, Associate Director for Capital Policy at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). He was referring to the financial models used by major financial institutions to estimate potential losses. On February 4, 2015, he was presenting a GARP-sponsored webinar on countercyclical stress tests to set capital requirements. Smith explained how credit risk is measured for mortgages, and described a way to embed stress testing that uses countercyclical concepts. He and colleague Jesse Weiher, Senior Economist at FHFA, performed dynamic stress testing that was adjusted to […]
Stressed Interest Rates: ‘Simple’ Not Good Enough
“It’s difficult to apply historical down-shocks to the current low interest rate environment,” said Will Doerner, “and models have problems in the low interest rate environments of today.” Doerner is Senior Economist at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (“Agency”), and was the first presenter at a GARP webinar on how to generate historically-based interest rate shocks, which was held October 28, 2014. An accurate estimation of market risk helps financial institutions determine the amount of capital needed to withstand adverse market events. Interest rate changes represent a key factor for institutions with large fixed income portfolios. As such, when stress […]
Tracking the Elusive Black Swan
Enterprise risk management (ERM) requires a “robust framework design and collaborative approach to capture a black swan event before its occurrence,” said Brenda Boultwood, Senior Vice President of Industry Solutions at MetricStream. She was the second of two speakers at the GARP-sponsored webinar on Black Swans and Reputational Risk held on August 26, 2014. Black swan events are “close to impossible to estimate impact and likelihood,” such as the Japan 2011 tsunami, or Hurricane Katrina. The complexity of these types of risk “requires that we focus on what is most important” in strategic risk management, said Boultwood, naming four principal areas: […]
“They Kill Things!”
Enterprise risk management (ERM) should aim to fill the strategic advisor role, which is the most valuable role, said Jim Fitzmaurice, Executive Advisor at Corporate Executive Board (CEB), because “the strategic advisor focuses on improving risk-informed strategic decisions.” Fitzmaurice, who advises both CEB Audit Leadership Council and CEB Risk Management Leadership Council, was the first of two speakers at the August 26, 2014 webinar on Black Swans and Reputational Risk sponsored by the Global Association of Risk Professionals. Fitzmaurice began by showing how the evolution of ERM has been a progression in the prominence of its role and a concomitant […]